Project risk score scale

December 23 2015

Q: Project risk score scale
I saw a risk scale on the project summary diagram. What does it mean and how it is calculated?

A: Project risk score scale is presented when you perform calculation in Microsoft Project. It is part of project summary dialog.
When you double click on project bar in RiskyProject Enterprise, the same dialog will come up. Project risk score is calculated separately for duration, cost, and other parameters. If there are no uncertainties in cost and other parameters, risk score fields will be empty. Project risk score is calculated based on empirical formula: project risk score equals 2 if all risks increase project duration or cost two times. If project risk score is less than 1, it is an opportunity or cancellation, so due to risk and uncertainties project will cost less or take less time. Also please remember that project can be cancelled. In this case it will also take less time and cost less.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1200

Probabilities outside of the distributions cut off

December 23, 2015

Q: Probabilities outside of the distributions cut off

Looks like the distribution in RiskyProject only considers the duration from Low to High (there is a kind of 'cut' at the beginning/end). Is that right? Because sometimes projects/tasks have so much delay that they will take longer than the highest duration.

A: For the distribution attached, only the probability distribution from Low to High is used in the simulation. Therefore significant delays, which would occur outside of these boundaries is not modeled. Normal and lognormal distributions are unbounded; therefore it is possible that they could go to infinity. So it could a chance that duration of the project will be very long which could be unrealistic. Therefore, with these distribution types we use a cut off. The solutions to this are:
- increase cut off by increasing the range and then playing with std. deviation parameter or selecting P1/P99
- use another statistical distribution, such as beta. It may also require increasing the ranges.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1199

How do I add the Risk Matrix to a report.

December 15, 2015

Q: How do I add the Risk Matrix to a report.

As part of our project risk reporting we would like to include the Risk Matrix, is there any way to add this to the Risk Register report for the project portfolio?

A: The risk register report only includes the risk matrix for specific risks, there is no way to add the risk matrix showing all of the project risks to the risk register. The Risk Register reporting views can all be used for Ad-hoc report though and specifically the Risky Matrix with all of the project risks using either the Printing feature or you can save the Risk Matrix as an image.
To print the risk matrix, open the Risk Matrix View. Select the risks that you want to include. The from the File menu, choose Print, Print Preview to view the chart. Then click Print. To save the risk matrix as an image, right-click on the risk matrix and from the shortcut menu, click Copy chart to file. You can then save the matrix as an image on a local drive. All major image types are supported.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1197

Question about the Addin simulations with incomplete data

December 15 2015

Q: Question about the Addin simulations with incomplete data

One of users had incorrectly added information required for selecting the statistical distribution as show in the Mapping dialog. He was just entering in a text description “triangular” in the field he had mapped, in this case Text 27. From the documentation it appears that we need to use the Duration dialog box and it adds a string of code to the text field that has been mapped. Is this correct.

A: The Addin has been designed to be very flexible. We strongly recommend that users always use the dialog boxes provide in the Input Distributions group on the ribbon to enter or modify statistical distribution data. This will ensure consistency in the data in the simulations. We do allow for users to manually update the data once it is entered as some find this to be more convenient. In which case, the Addin will check to see if there are differences between the values entered in Statistical Distribution text field and the Durations for Low and High estimates. If there is a discrepancy, the Addin will use the values in the Duration fields for the simulation. In addition, if the Addin finds values in the Low and High duration fields as setup up in the mapping, but does not find the statistical distribution code, it will automatically assign a triangular distribution and allow the user to run the simulation.
Again we strongly recommend user to use the Statistical Distribution to add and maintain the low and high estimates and statistical distribution type for the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1198

Sensitivity Analysis

Decempber 15, 2015

Q: Sensitivity Analysis

I have been viewing some of you videos and it was showing the sensitivity as a % rather than a decimal value (eg. 45% vs 0.345). It seems to provide a bit more intuitive value when it is a %. I have looked in the Project options views and Calculations etc and can’t seem to find anything to switch it over.

A: As you noticed the sensitivity value can be shown using two types of methods. The first is the Spearman rank correlation and is the standard calculation method that we use to calculate all correlation and sensitivity (which is a type of correlation) during the monte carlo simulation. However as you noted, it is not particularly user friendly especially for anyone who is not familiar with these types of statistical analysis. The % values you are seen is call Contribution to Variance. This calculation uses the Spearman rank correlation, but normalizes the values to provide a % that the particular risk or activity contributes to the variance that we see in a specific project parameter.
You can select which method in the Sensitivy view not the Project Options. After running a simuilation, go the Analysis views, Sensitivity Analysis. At the top right corner click the Sensitivity Calculation Algorithm button and you can switch between the methods.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

Tornado Chart is missing

December 15 2015

Q: Tornado Chart is missing

After we run the Monte Carlo risks analysis, the Tornado chart only seems to show a few of the activities and the rest are filtered out. Why is this happening and how can add more activities to the view?

A: In an effort to simplify the interface and the amount of data shown in this view, we apply a cut off value such that it only shows activities or risks to which selected project parameters show a significant sensitivity. This is consistent with our goal to always provide views that prioritize and rank critical activities or risks so that they can be easily identified and support the project decision making process.
The filter is applied using a minimum sensitivity coefficient. By default, it is set to 0.16 which we typically find is a reasonable cut off value which will display the most critical values without adding populating too many rows in the Tornado chart.
You can modify this sensitivity coefficient in the Project Options, Calculations tab. Depending on the size and complexity of your project, you can experiment with this value so that it meets your analysis requirements.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1195

Monte Carlo simulation results for tasks

December 9, 2015

Q: Monte Carlo simulation results for tasks

Have you thought of any easier method to bring up the task charts? Once we have run the simulations, it would be nice just to select a task and bring up the results. Now it takes a couple of extra clicks, which seems unnecessary.

A: After you have run the Monte Carlo schedule risk assessment, you can quickly open the Task charts in any of the Gantt Chart views by double-clicking on the task bar. The charts are available in the Project View, Results Gantt, Success Rate, and Crucial Task.
In the example below, we can see the Crucial Task view is open, by double-click on the task’s bar in the Gantt Chart portion of the view, you can quickly bring up the simulation results, without either using the right-click menu or the Task Simulation Results buttons found on the Analysis tab.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1193

What does the task scatter plot do?

December 9, 2015

Q: What does the task scatter plot do?

We are putting together a dashboard and are wondering if the scatter plot should be included. What insights can we get from it above what is shown in the histogram/cumulative probability.

A: The scatter plot is an valuable visualization to show the relationhips between one variable and another. In task scatter plot, for each iteration it plots the task cost or duration vs the project cost or duration. From the pattern of the dots, we can see how tightly correlated the project results are to the task results.
For example in the scatter plot below there is a relatively strong positive relationship between the project cost (y axis) and the task cost (x axis) . This is indicated by the football shape of the plot as well as its orientation of bottom left to top right. This indicates that this task is a main driver of the project cost.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1194

Risk arrows on the Gantt Chart

December 9, 2015

Q: Risk arrows on the Gantt Chart

We have found that showing the location of the risks on the Gantt chart is very useful during our project reviews. Are you considering anyway show details of the risk without having to leave the Gantt chart. We think that this type of interaction would be very useful.

A: The risk arrows on the Gantt bars lets the team know where the risks are assigned to the schedule and their criticality (green, yellow, or red). Each of the risk indicators (arrows) on the Gantt bars represents not just a risk assignment, but the risk assignment to a particular risk category( Cost, Schedule or other category). As you noted if you hover over the risk indicator, a pop up bubble opens up with the risk name as below:
If you double-click on the risk indicator, it will display the Local Risk Assignment information. In addition this information is editable, so you can use this feature to modify risk assignment (chance or outcome) if required from the Gantt chart.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1192

Lags in RiskyProject

December 9, 2015

Q: Lags in RiskyProject

I have read that lags can create issues when running schedule risk analysis. However the schedules I have require them due to actual delays between when one activity starts and the next one can begin. Are there any standard rules about when you should keep or remove lags.

A: Lags are typically put in place by schedulers when there will be a delay in between the end of one activity and the start of another one. This often occurs in construction projects when activities are delayed until the concrete is finished setting. These types of lags, with finish start relationships are legitimate and should be kept in schedule. Lags which are put into to artificially set preconceived dates are a form of gaming a schedule to provide buffers or margin and should be avoided in any schedules, in particular ones that are going to be used for schedule risk analysis.
In schedule risk analysis, the goal is to have as few constraints as possible so that the project updates naturally to changes in activity durations. Any type of logic that impedes this will lessen the validity of your analysis.

In RiskyProject we have a probabilistic lag. It is defined in Predecessors tab of Task Information Dialog:

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1191

Low and high duration for summary tasks

December 3, 2015

Q: Low and high duration for summary tasks

When I use the add in with MS project 2010 why does the program calculate low and high durations for subordinate tasks but does not for the summary task. I would be pleased if you could advise me where i am going wrong.

A: In Microsoft Project, summary tasks are inert and all they do is provide a rollup of the underlying subordinate tasks. The same is true for our simulations; we can only use the subordinate values as inputs.
If we edited the low and high summary estimates, it would give the appearance that we are using the summary values for the simulation, which would be incorrect and could possibly create discrepancies between probabilistic results for the summary and subordinate tasks.
Therefore to ensure there is no misunderstanding, we do not modify the values for the summary activities for the Low and High Duration columns.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1190

Distribution for risk impact

December 3, 2015

Q: Distribution for risk impact

When should you use a probability distribution instead of a single value for impacts? Are there any rules or guidelines about when you should use statistical distributions instead of singe values for risk impacts?

A: There really are no established rules about when you should use on over the other. However, when we do a risk assessment generally for impacts we look at the answer to the question “If risk x occurs, what will happen”. If this a well known risk and impacts a specific WBS or activity and the answer is “we will have to replace this widget and it will cost this and take this long to fix.
 If the answer is, “We have ordered these parts many times and the cost has not varied in the past couple of years and we have performed this activity many times” the you can feel very confident in have a single impacts for cost or schedule.
However, if the answer is, “ Last time we went to order the parts from procurement, they weren’t available from our regular supplier, so we had to source them elsewhere, They cost a bit more and the procurement process caused delays. We also had to revise some of our procedures because the equipment was not exactly the same”. Then this is a good opportunity to try estimate best case and worst case for both schedule and cost and use this to define a probability distribution for what he impacts of the risk could be.
In our experience, if you ask enough questions, most risk impacts will be assessed as probabilistic

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1189

Fine tuning statistical distributions

December 3, 2015

Q: Fine tuning statistical distributions

We would like to fine tune some of the statistical distributions we use for our schedule risk analysis based on historical data. Typically we have been using triangular distributions, but based on our experience we think that this puts too much probability on the boundaries.

A: RiskyProject has many other distributions available, and you can to fine tune parameters of them.
You can fine tune or customize the statistical distribution for Schedule (as well as other parameters) in the Task Information > Distributions.
In the Distributions dialog, click the Duration tab. You can select a distribution from the Distribution drop down list. Depending upon your selection, you will be presented with distribution specific parameters that you can modify. For example for BetaPert you can modify the Mean or for LogNormal you can define the boundaries.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1188

2016 Events for Intaver Institute

December 2, 2015

2016 Events for Intaver Institute

Intaver Institute Inc. will attend as an exhibitor or make presentations on at least six major events in 2016. Our next event will be Construction CPM Conference in New Orleans, LA (January 31 - February 5, 2016, Sheraton Canal Street). Construction CPM conferences focuses on the Critical Path Method of Planning and Scheduling Analysis, including project risk analysis and risk management. Intaver Institute Inc. will present its RiskyProject software suite. We will also make a presentation on theoretical aspects of project risk analysis and in particular our Event Chain Methodology.
For more information please visit our events page.


http://www.intaver.com/index-events.html

December 1, 2015

Q: How can I add project information to the reports

We would like to add project information to our reports, such an the Project Name, Date and other information to headers and footers. Is there a way to do this.

A: You can provide additional project information that is included in the Project Settings in addition to creation and modification dates. You can add (or remove) this information to the report headers or footers in the Page Setup dialog box.
To find this, go the the File menu, Print Page Setup. The Header and Footer information can be modified by selecting or clearing the checkboxes associated with the data types. If you use RiskyProject Enterprise this information stays in the database. If you use RiskyProject Professional or Lite this information stays in the system registry.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1187

December 1, 2015

Q: Best way to modify risks assigned to individual task?

HI, we used the drag and drop to mass assign risks to tasks, but now would like fine tune some of the risk impacts for cost. What is the best way to do this?

A: The Drag N”Drop view is a quick way to assign risks to multiple activities, but as you have found you have to apply the same probabilities and impacts to all of the task. So in cases, such as when you want to keep the same probability (which makes sense) but different levels of impacts to improve the validity of your monte carlo risk analysis, then you may want to look at a few methods.
First, if you open a risk in the Risk Register, in the Assign to tasks or Resources tab, you can modify the risk assignments for each task.
Alternatively, if you would like to modify them not by risk, but by activity, if you select a task and open the Task Information >Risk. You can edit the risk information for that task.
Finally, you can use one of the Local Risk views (Task or Resources) . These views can be used to add or modify risk assignments for tasks or resources. If you select a single task, it will show the risks only for that specific task. However if you select 2 or more tasks, it applies Boolean logic and will show risks that are common to all of the selected tasks.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1186

December 1, 2015

Q: What happened to the Local Risk views?

Hi, we recently upgraded to version 6 and one of the views Local Risks we have used in the past is gone.We like to use this when going over the results of our monte carlo simulations with the team.

A: In version 6.1 you may noticed the new Drag and drop risk, but the Local risk view provides a nice overview of how risks are assigned to the tasks without having to go to the Task Information dialog or one of the reporting views. It allows us to look at assumptions for particular activities and quickly modifly risks.
In RiskyProject version 6.1 the Local risks views are still available, but have been moved out of the main ribbon and workflow due to space requirements. You can open the local Risk views suing the All Views button located on the ribbon and workflow bar. Click on the Local Risk view you want to open.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1185

December 1, 2015

Q: Where is cost variance?

We have project with actuals for schedule and cost and we can see the Actuals plotted on the chart. Why can’t I see anything for the cost variance?

A: In RiskyProject you need you Cost Analysis view. You can find in to workflow bar on right hand side under Analysis.
After you have run your Monte Carlo simulations, if you have actuals, as you have indicated you can see the Actuals plot line on the chart. You need to use the slider to show cost variance on specific time periods. By default the slider handle is located on the bottom left of the chart and you might not have noticed it. Check out the picture below.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

November 26, 2015

Q: How do I increase/decrease size of font in printed reports.

The font size on the printed reports is a bit smaller that we would like. Is there anyway to increase the size?

A: For any report, whether it is the monte carlo simulation results, the risk register report, or any ad-hoc reporting from a view, you can modify the font size by changing the height of the rows in the view. The system will automatically resize the font to match the height of the row.
To increase the size of the font in your printed reports:
1. From the File menu, click Print > Page Setup.
2. Enter in the desired value in the Height of one item box. You can experiment by checking changes to the font size in the

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1183

November 26, 2015

Q: Two Addin tabs in Microsoft Project

I'm using the RiskyProject Lite integration with MS project 2010. schedule in MS Project, I always have two RiskyProject Lite6 tabs in MS Project. Please advise how to fix rather than working around as described.

A: The dual tabs is normally, but not always, due to an incomplete uninstall of the software, where for unknown reasons the Windows installer does not remove references to the Addin. In these cases, if the software is reinstalled it creates an identical reference to the Addin in the Project Add-in Manager. We can remove the reference without editing the registry in the Options.
1. Open MS Project 2010.
2. Click the File tab on the ribbon.
3. Click Options.
4. Click Add-Ins
5. You should see two RiskyProject Addin on the Active Application Add-Ins.
6. In the Manage drop-down list at the bottom of the dialog, select Com Add-ins and then click GO. There will be two entries for the Addin listed. If you highlight the Addin, it will show the location of the addin code in the Location reference.
7. Select one of the entries and click Remove. If this fails to remove the Addin entry, clear the checkbox and click OK. This will disable one of the tabs, so you do not have two.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1182

November 26, 2015

Q: Correlating multiple risks

Let us assume that we have 3 events (Event 1, Event 2 and Event 3) and we want to correlate Event 1 with Event 3 and Event 2 with Event 3. But we don't want to correlate Event 1 with Event 2. How can that be modelled at RiskyProject?
I am asking because when I correlate Event 1 with Event 3, and then Event 3 with Event 2, RiskyProject automatically correlates Event 1 with Event 2. I am working on my thesis on the implementation of ECM in the construction of a bridge with RiskyProject. I would like you to answer a question if it is easy. Thank you very much in advance.

A: You have asked a very interesting question and given the current risk modeling in RiskyProject there is no direct method to do this type of correlation. Because RiskyProject use the risk assignment Seed to correlate risks, if you correlate 1&3 and 2&3, then 1&2 will be automatically correlated.
E.g If Risk 1 risk assignment has a seed of 0001 and is correlated to Risk 3, then Risk 3 will automatically be given the seed of 0001. Then if risk 2 is correlated to Risk 3, then Risk 2 will also be given the seed of 0001.
Risk correlations can be viewed and assigned for each task in the Task Information, Risks tab, right-click on a Risk and select Risk Information. Click the Correlations tab.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1181

November 26, 2015

Q: Importing resource leveled schedules

I have a question on how to best handle resource leveling in risky project. In my MS Project schedule I have leveling delay to ensure that the nominal schedule is in balance however this information is not transferred to Risky Project. My question is, what is recommended strategy for resource constrained schedules in risky project.

A: We do not currently perform resource leveling in RiskyProject as there are several issues with probabilistic resource leveling whose solution is unclear. For example, all if not most, scheduling software have proprietary algorithms in regards to how the resource leveling is actually performed and how each resource is allocated. Each of these software may save the level schedule in different formats. Therefore because of this uncertainty, at the current time we recommend that after users import their schedule they create explicit Finish Start links between the activities resources to which the resources are assigned. This will roughly approximate the effect of resource leveling on schedules.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1180

User log in RiskyProject Enterprise

November 20, 2015

Q: User log in RiskyProject Enterprise
Can see how many people logged on and what changes did they make in the RiskyProject Enterprise?

A: RiskyProject Enterprise session log can be found in Files->Users->Logon History. It includes list of all activities and closed sessions with user name and computer ID, so you can see who logged on to the system and when. Administrator can delete sessions from the log. If logoff time is empty, it means that session is in progress of the user did not properly logged off (shut down computer or killed RiskyProject).
To see other information related to use activities you may use risk history: double click on risk ID, and then go to history tab. Administrators can edit these logs for all users, while users can edit only their own records. You cannot see any log if user changes schedules, or import schedule from Microsoft Project or Primavera to RiskyProject.

For more information please visit www.intaver.com

Risk Outcome Cancel Task and Successors

November 20, 2015

Q: Risk Outcome Cancel Task and Successors
What risk outcome "Cancel task and all successors" means if I have complex network and multiple paths?

A: If your define a risk and risk outcome is "Cancel Task + All successors", it would mean that this task will can cancelled and all successors of this tasks will be canceled at the same time with the same probability. In the example bellow risk is applied to the first task called "Risk1", but "Risk2" and "Risk3" will also be cancelled at the same time. Cancelation means that duration will be set to zero. Cost of cancelled task depends when cancelation event occurred and cost accrual rules. RiskyProject has a notion of moment of risk. Risk may occur any time during a course of activity. It is defined by statistical distribution. If risk occurred at the middle of activities and cost accrual is set to prorated, than RiskyProject will calculate cost as 50% of total cost. If risk outcome is "Cancel Task + All successors", the same rule will be applied to all successors of this task.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com

Low and high duration in Microsoft Project

November 20, 2015

Q: Low and high duration in Microsoft Project
Hi, we are evaluating RiskyProject and it seems that even though I changed estimates for low and high, it still seems to be calculating with previous numbers.

A: When you are using the RiskyProject Addin to run schedule risks analysis, there are a few key things to be aware of. You must identify the field that you will be using for the Low and High estimates in the Field Mapping. By default it is Text11, but can be any text field that is available. Once this is mapped, you should not change this setting as this is where the Addin looks to apply statistical distribution during the Monte Carlo simulation.
When you are first adding the low and high estimates, you must provide a statistical distribution by using the Input Distribution > Duration dialog box.
Once this is done, you can modify the Low and High estimates without using the dialog box. However , this will bypass any error checks that are done when you input the data, for example you cannot enter a low estimate that is greater than the base duration. Looking at your file, I found a few things that could be causing the issues you are seeing. If you are modifying the data without using Duration dialog box, it is possible to enter values in which Low > Base or High < Base or Low which could cause errors.
If you look at the image below, I have indicated a few issues in the data that should be addressed.

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November 9, 2015

Q: Restoring Links with Microsoft Project files
I have made a *.mpp project and from the MS project started the riskyproject application. However when I move both files I am not able maintain the link between the two program. What shall I do? Where can tie files together again?

A: The file linkage that you mention is based upon the location of the files. When you use the Addin to export the data from Microsoft Project to RiskyProject it creates a link in your registry that includes the file names. The link includes the path and name of both files for example c:\My Documents\Test.mpp=c:\My Documents\Test.alm.
The linkage feature only works if the location of the mpp file is the same. For example, if you move the mpp file location, when you export the data, RiskyProject will look to see if there is already a mapping saved in the registry. But because the file is moved, it will not find a match and it creates a new file, but it is now linked to the moved mpp file.
However if the data in the Microsoft Project file is the same and you can import your risks from your existing alm file as risks are linked using the task unique ID in Microsoft Project and these do not change even if you delete or add new tasks.
To import the risks, in RiskProject choose File (icon in the top left) > Import > Risks From Another Project. Browse to the original *.alm file and click OK to import the risks.

For more information please visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1175

How do I sort out residual risk from uncertainties

November 9, 2015

Q: How do I sort out residual risk from uncertainties
We have created a mitigated baseline that contains both residual risk and uncertainty. As part of your process, we would like to separate out the impacts of the residual risks and the uncertainties from the monte carlo risk analysis. Is there a quick way to do this. We were thinking of creating to baselines one with the risks and one with only uncertainties, but would prefer not to.

A: The easiest way is just to disable all the risks. First step is to run a monte carlo simulation. Save the analysis. Then you can disable all the risks. This is done in the Risks Tab, Export/Import > Enable/Disable Risks.
Run one more simulation and record the results. This results of this analysis in the impact of uncertainty on your project. The differences between the 1st and 2nd simulation is the impact of the residual risk on your project.

For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1174

Is there any high level register summary

November 9, 2015

Q: Is there any high level register summary
Is there a quick way to see a summary of the risk register. Like how many risks, what is the cost of the risks etc.

A: Yes. #RiskyProject comes with a Risk Register dashboard. It is found in the main Risk Register view. To view it you must click the Statistics button. The Statistics dashboard provides a high level overview of the status of the risk register, including number of risks, status of risks (open, closed, issues etc). Last updates and cost of risks.

For more information please visit www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1173

Monte Carlo simulation performance

November 3, 2015

Q: Monte Carlo simulation performance
As part of our project reporting, we have to provide schedule risk analysis on a monthly basis. Currently, the master schedule is over 10000 tasks and is resource loaded. We use the MS Project addin to export the xml to RiskyProject and the size of file now is over GB and is maxing out the computers memory etc. Do you have any tips to speed up the process. We can’t modify the file, so that is out of the question.

A: If the Addin is still exporting an xml file from MS Project, you must still be on version 5. In the latest version 6.x, we have replaced the xml format with a proprietary data file which allows us to automatically eliminate around 90% of the data transferred as it is not required for the schedule or cost risk analysis . In addition, users can customize the data transfer as well, by eliminating unneeded project data such as Notes, Custom Fields, Deadlines, and Cost (if you are only running schedule risk analysis.
(picture)
By eliminating extraneous data from the analysis, with the current version we have been able to improve the time required to export data and run a simulation from 10 to 30 times. This is a significant improvement and it means that analysis that used to take an hour can be done in minutes and what took minutes now only takes seconds.
See our news release at: http://www.intaver.com/riskyproject_version61.html

For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1170

Default values for low and high durat

November 3, 2015

Q: Default values for low and high durat
We have a very large schedule and for first run schedule risk #analysis I would like it if I could automatically apply low and high duration estimates based on factors.

A: If you are importing a file, the only way to batch apply factors to calculate low and high durations estimates is to select all of the tasks in the project <Ctrl+F> , Select All and then right click on the Task ID column (on the far left) and choose Set Low/High Duration. You then add the factors in the Multiply on coefficient group, in the respective text boxes for Low and High durations.
Alternatively, if you are creating a project in RiskyProject, you can automatically calculate the low and high estimate for new tasks. To do this, go to Schedule > Settings and Options > Project Options > Duration. Select the Multiply on coefficient option and enter in the appropriate values for Low and High durations.
Click the Set as Default if you would like to set this as your preference for all projects.

For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1171

Risk Chart question

November 3, 2015

Q: Risk Chart question
One of our divisions started using #RiskyProject and it seems to provide all the standard monte carlo analysis reports. You also have a risk chart view, it looks interesting but we are not quite sure how we can use it to communicate the results to management.

A: The Risk chart as shown at the project level provides a visual depiction of the amount of relative cost and schedule risk that each activity has. It is not designed to tell you why the tasks have the amount of relative risk, but rather these are the activities that you should be flagged for additional scrutiny.
The risk chart has the base cost or duration values on the y axis and the risk on the x axis. The risk is displayed in measures such as standard deviation ranges etc, which can be selected at the bottom of the charts. The charts follow a familiar traffic light color coding to indicate relative levels of risk for each task. In the example below, on the left we can see the Cost risk view and the Duration risk view on the right. Task 19 and 13 are lying out the right and indicate that they have more relative risk. From the comparison of the two, it appears that most of what is driving this is schedule risk. We might also infer that the schedule risk is probably driving cost risk as well due to time dependent resources assigned to these tasks.
Does this tell you how to manage these tasks. Not in isolation, but in conjunction with the sensitivity analysis, crucial task analysis (to see how often the tasks are critical) and risk ranking in the risk register, you should have a better understanding of how to manage these tasks and reduce the impact they may on your project objectives.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1172

Does it matter if you manually or Autoschedule

October 29, 2015

Q: Does it matter if you manually or Autoschedule
Does it affect the results of your Monte Carlo simulations if you manually or autoschedule tasks in Microsoft Project ?

A: Manually scheduled tasks may affect the schedule risk analysis. When you import manually scheduled tasks from Microsoft Project, they become constrained. It occurs if you use RiskyProject addin in Microsoft Project or if you use export data to XML file in Microsoft Project and import this XML file in #RiskyProject. The constraint may be for example "Must Start On" for the manually scheduled task in Microsoft Project.
The Monte Carlo simulations take into account the predecessor network (links between the activities) and constrained tasks will not move if for example duration of the predecessor increased. If you want to check which option you have on, it is shown on the bottom left of the MS Project task bar.

For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1168

How do can I highlight bars in the Result Gant

October 29, 2015

Q: How do can I highlight bars in the Result Gant
I would like to use a similar color coding that you have in other views to highlight the low, base, and high. For example, have the low results bar as green, the base as Yellow and, High Results red.

A: I think that is a very interesting method to highlight the different results. One thing to note is that in other views we use the green, yellow and red to indicate levels of risks. In the result Gantt the low or high results are not indicative of low or high risk, but low or high certainties of meeting specific dates. For example, if you ran a Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis on a 5 day task with low and high durations of 4.5 and 5.5 days, there would be very little variance and the green, yellow, red type coloring could be misleading if it was interpreted as low and high risk.
If you do want to try this, you can modify the Gantt bars in any of the views using the Schedule >Settings and Options > Format Gantt Bar. You can choose shapes, colors and outlines for any of the Gantt Chart bars including the Low and High results.
In the example below, the high results have been modified to show as red. Please note, you can not show the Low and High results as individual bars at the same time.

For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1169

Setting defaults for optimistic and pessimistic duration

October 29, 2015

Q: Setting defaults for optimistic and pessimistic duration
I am still trying to figure out how to set the default optimistic and pessimistic duration values.

A: If you would like to automatically add low and high default estimates, you can do this in the Project Options Duration tab. In the Calculation of low and high durations and work. There are two different options, to calculate the estimates based on the relative duration of tasks, select the "Multiply on coefficient" option.
A good starting point is to enter a small variance such as .95 and 1.15 to model schedule quality. You can then run a first simulation. At which point, you can review with Project team and stakeholders, to modify tasks that are critical or near critical.
 The other method is to use reference classes and is the preferred method in larger more technical projects http://herdingcats.typepad.com/my_weblog/2015/02/sources-for-reference-class-forecasting.html. If you are interested, this blog is an invaluable source of information in regards to project risk.

For more information please visit www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1166

Are hidden columns included when you import data from MS Pro

October 25, 2015

Q: Are hidden columns included when you import data from MS Pro
We are going to be using the Addin to move our MS Project data to RiskyProject for cost and schedule risks analysis. If we have hidden columns, is that data included in the export?

A: When you import data into RiskyProject from Microsoft Project via the RiskyProject Addin in Microsoft Project or using XML export/import, by default all of the project data is included. This includes if you hide columns, or have filtered views. This do not impact what data is included in the files.
However, I f you are using the Addin, you can select to exclude specific data types . By limiting the amount of data you can improved the performance of the simulations in MS Project (using the Addin) or importing it in to RiskyProject. On large schedules this can have a significant impact on the time and computer resources required to run the Monte Carlo simulations.
You can exclude this data using the Field Mappings dialog box. In the example below, Custom Fields, Deadlines, and Notes will not be imported into #RiskyProject.

For more information please visit www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1167

Intaver Institute and SNA-Software Integrated Solution

October 29, 2015

Intaver Institute and SNA-Software Integrated Solution

#Intaver Institute Inc. and Safran North America LLC today announced that they have developed seamless integration between SNA’s flagship EVM solution Proteus Envision and Intaver’s project risk analysis and project risk management software #RiskyProject.
The Proteus-RiskyProject integration allows SNA to provide a complete and seamless Earned Value and Risk Management solution to its clients. Users will be able run a comprehensive Cost and Schedule risk analysis using their UN/CEFACT project data. This solution will provide comprehensive support for program management guidelines recently released by PARCA.
For more information please read our press release.

http://www.intaver.com/downloads/IntaverPressReleaseOct29_2015.pdf

Mean vs P50 in schedule risk analysis

October 25, 2015 Q: Mean vs P50 in schedule #riskanalysis We have been asked to rebaseline our project based on the P50 results of the analysis. This has been taken by some of our project team members to indicate the Mean or average of the results. I think I remember reading that this is not the case in schedules because of the shape of the histogram. A: It is a common misunderstanding that the P50 is a synonym for the Mean or Average. If the probability distribution for activities were symmetrical, this this would be the case, where the Mode, Mean and P50 all would be the same. It might be better to provide the alternative name to P50 which is the Median. In the case of schedules, the distribution almost always tend to be right skewed as there is a finite amount that it can shorten, but an infinite amount that it could extend (possibly never be finished). Because of this right skewedness, the Mode (most likely), P50, and the Mean begin to diverge. Lets take a look at the below graph. If we look at the left, we can see that the Mean is ~ 11 days, and the P50 is 10.8. The most likely is even farther to the left somewhere around 10 days. Therefore, generally the Mean is a slightly higher level of confidence (finish at or before) than the P50. In the case below, the Mean represents about P55. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1164

Can I modify the page setup for Gantt Chart

October 25, 2015 Q: Can I modify the page setup for Gantt Chart Hi, we would like to print out the Result Gantt analysis from the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis onto a plotter. If I go to the Page Setup it only shows Portrait or Landscape and doesn’t really allow us to format for other sizes of outputs.I find that being able to post the comparison of our current baseline vs the Mean for each task is a great way to start status meeting. A: The Result Gantt can be a very useful visual to promote discussion during status meetings. The actual printed output defaults to the system’s default printer. This printer is shown in the File > Print > Page Setup. You can set the default printer in the Windows Control panel. You will need to select your Plotter as the default printer if you want to do a Print Preview. If not you can select the Plotter as the target printer when you go to the Print dialog. In this case, I would recommend doing a small test, to ensure that the page setup transfers to the larger output. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1165

Filtering risks that are shown in risk register

October 25, 2015 Q: Filtering risks that are shown in risk register Filtering risks that are shown in risk register A: You can use risk properties to filter the risks which appear in the risk register. Risks are automatically ranked based on risks scores regardless of the filter applied. The first thing is to check the list of default custom properties that are provided in the Risk Information > Custom Properties tab. If you need to create a new custom property you can create them using the Risks > Settings > Default Properties view. When you add risks to the risk register, you then need to enter the associated value into the property for all the risks to ensure that you can filter on that property. In the Risk Register, click the Filter button and then create the Filter. In the example below, the risk register show the risks with the Location value = Phase One. You can use Boolean logic to build additional conditions that must be met. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1162

Can you risk resource costs

October 25, 2015 Q: Can you risk resource costs In the Assign to Tasks or Resources view in the Risk Register, we have added a risks to a resource. One is a schedule risk, but the other involves the cost of the risk. We assigned a fixed cost risk, but do not see any impact from after performing the monte carlo risk analysis. Are we doing something wrong? A: You can risks resources costs in two ways, but not using the “relative or fixed’ cost increase as these only apply to costs that are entered into the Cost and Income View. The first method is via time dependent costs where you apply a duration risk (fixed or relative) to a resource. This schedule increase will cause proportional increase (or decrease if it is an opportunity) every time the risk occurs during the simulation. The second method is to apply a risk to the resource rate. The rates are defined in the Resource view. To assign a risk to that rate, you must open the Resource Information dialog box and click the Risks tab. There you can either enter a new risk or clicking in an empty row and selecting a risk from the drop-down list. Once you have entered the chance, select Rate increase from the list of outcome types. The rate increase can modeled as any other risk: as a single outcome or as a statistical distribution. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1163

Task constraints for scheduling in RiskyProject

October 22, 2015 Q: Task constraints for scheduling in RiskyProject I have schedule and it has a lot of “must finish on” constraints. I have read that to run Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis that it is best not to have these in the schedule. However, the planners say that they need them in their schedules as part of their reporting. Any advice. A: This is a fairly common issue that arises when companies start to implement quantitative schedule risk analysis as part of the project management processes. Typically, we see “Must Finish on” or other “hard” constraints – those constraints which fix start or finish times to a particular date – to meet delivery deadlines as part of contract agreements etc. But in many cases, these are overly optimistic given the inherent risk of the projects. In this case the constraints can be considered wishful thinking and wishful thinking is one of the biases that we try to overcome with the schedule risk analysis. RiskyProject allows for hard constraints because we do have clients that do have true hard constraints abd are aware of how it impacts the results of their analysis. However, in this case, they have very specific analysis techniques that they use to ensure that these constraints do not bias their decisions. In cases where constraints have been put in place for reasons such as “if we don’t finish by then, we could lose our bonuses or the client could penalize us” etc, then these constraints will generate an analysis that provides an unrealistic confidence of delivering at specific dates. Therefore we recommend that by default for schedule risk analysis, all tasks have a “Start as soon as possible” constraint and only in very specific cases should hard constraints be used. We recommend that hard constraints be replaced with deadlines. In addition, using soft constraints is considered best practice for all schedules; otherwise, during project execution the project will not update properly when you add actuals to your schedule. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1159

Addin not calculating low and high correctly

October 22, 2015 Q: Addin not calculating low and high correctly Hello, we are trying to use the RiskyProject Addin in Microsoft Project, but are getting strange results for pessimistic (high) results when we run a Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis. We are using Duration1 and Duration2 for low and high durations. A: Most likely reason for the results you are getting is that the column mappings for duration are not set correctly. This is a common issue. The default column mappings for Low and High Duration when you first install the software are fields Duration 1 and Duration 3. However, people often are unaware that these fields are mapped and can be customized and therefore need to be setup before running the Monte Carlo risk analysis. The field mappings can be found in the RiskyProject addin tab, Settings>Field Mappings. In the screenshot below is an example of how the field mapppings and the duration estimates can be mapped incorrectly. In this example to fix this, the user would need to switch the High duration to Duration 2. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1161

Probabilistic Branching in project schedules

October 22, 2015 Q: Probabilistic Branching in project schedules We are looking at adding branching into our models as part of our Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis and are wondering which options we should use. What is the difference between Running (or Canceling) a task or Running or Cancelling and setting to zero. A: If you are looking at the analysis at the project summary level, there is not a large difference between to two types of branching options. It does however, have a significant impact if you are looking at the expected values at the task level. The reason for this is that in the results, if you select just to run or cancel branches, at each iteration, if a branch is cancelled it is given a NULL result. If you select the set to zero option, the a branch is cancelled a 0 is entered as a result. For the vast majority of modeling, using the option to run or cancel will provide the most intuitive results. In the example below, you can see how these options impact the expected values (EV) for a task. Image For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1157

Custom distributions for Monte Carlo

October 22, 2015 Q: Custom distributions for Monte Carlo I noticed that you also have custom distributions in additional to all the others. We use triangular for all of our schedule risk analysis, but are looking at whether to use any of the others listed. A: As part of Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis, you must define a statistical distribution that defines the probability density function (PDF) of you estimates. All of the distributions that we provide are considered continuous distributions and they represent all possible values between the low and high boundaries. Custom distributions are generally used when you have historical data from previous projects with similar activities that you enter discrete values for each interval between the low and high estimates. Creating a custom distribution requires entering in intervals (as a percentage between 1-100) and how often a value for that interval will occur. In the example below we have duration estimate of 4-7 days with 9 intervals each with a percentage that the activity will be completed during that interval. The sum of the percentages of each bin should equal 100% probability. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1158

Edit Project Calendars

October 19, 2015 Q: Edit Project Calendars I am assuming that if you can create a schedule you should be able to edit the project calendar, but I can’t seem to find out where you this. A: RiskyProject is a standalone scheduling software, but we do use common terminology “Working Time”. We do have several standard calendars 40 hr work week, 24 hr. etc. Typically, in RiskyProject, the majority of our users will import the project schedules and including calendars that are defined in the 3rd party scheduling tool. However, if this is not the case, if you creating a new schedule or are going to define a specific calendar for purposes of probabilistic modelling during Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis. You define or edit them in the Working Time dialog box. You can open the Working Time dialog box from Schedule > Schedule and Calendar and clicking the calendar icon. You can create new or modify existing calendars. Each new calendar can be defined using previously created calendar as a base. To find our more, search on Working Time in our user guides or help system. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1154

Probabilistic Calendar For Monte Carlo Simulations

October 19, 2015 Q: Probabilistic Calendar For Monte Carlo Simulations I'm looking for the way to define probabilistic calendar in RiskyProject. A: Yes we support probabilistic calendars. Typically, they are used to model weather events or other phenomena that restrict or change working days or hours during Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis. As part of this process, you need to create one or more project calendars that have for example, non-working days due to a weather event. Therefore, if you are going to working in a northern sub arctic area where there is a spring breakup period that occurs sometime in April-May that 1 in 5 years causes a total shutdown for x days/weeks above the normal that models this and run it 20% probability while running the standard the other 80% of the time. You sent probabilistic calendars in Schedule > Settings and Options > Project Settings. The Probabilistic Project Calendar list includes all of the calendars defined in the current project. Beside each calendar you can enter in the chance that they will be used during Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis. In the example below, we have modelled 3 different scenarios for working time during the spring breakup, each with a different probability of occurring. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1155

Calendars for Projects vs. Calendars for Portfolio

October 19, 2015 Q: Calendars for Projects vs. Calendars for Portfolio In RiskyProject Enterprise I don't understand what calendar is used for individual project and what calendar is used for project portfolio. A: In RiskyProject we have both portfolio and project calendar. Portfolio calendar is applied only for calculating and drawing portfolio Gantt chart. In current version of RiskyProject we don't have links between different project. Therefore portfolio calendar applied only to duration of the individual project shown on the Project Portfolio view. In current version of RiskyProject 6.1 portfolio calendar is only Standard. Portfolio calendar does not affect results of Monte Carlo simulations. Project calendar can be different. You can define it for individual project. It is defined in Schedule -> Project Settings. Project calendar is a default calendar for individual project. Each particular resources or tasks may have its own calendar. Generally RiskyProject uses the same logic as Microsoft Project. Project calendar affects results of Monte Carlo simulations. If you brings schedule created in Microsoft Project or any other software into RiskyProject, project calendar will be imported. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1156

NPV calculation settings

October 14, 2015 Q: NPV calculation settings We are going to be using the Cash flow analysis, but noticed that whenever we open a project it seems to have a 10% NPV as a default. Can we modify it? A: The NPV discount default rate is used calculate the net present value of the project as is especially useful in cases where the project will have both costs and incomes to understand future values of the project. The default discount rate is set in the Project Options>Cost>NPV Calculation box. To set the value as the default value, click Set as Default. One thing to note that when you run a Monte Carlo cost risk analysis, the NPV is calculated automatically. However, you can recalculate the NPV using a different discount rate without rerunning the simulation using the Recalculate NPV button. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1151

Where do you set abbreviations for days and weeks

October 14, 2015 Q: Where do you set abbreviations for days and weeks We normally enter activity durations in weeks. Where do I set this and if possible can we change it the display from “weeks” to just “w” A: You can do this very easily in the Project Options. To Set the default time units for entering duration, go to Schedule>Settings and Options>Project Options>Duration tab and select the unit from Duration is entered in drop down list. To modify how the units appear, go to the Project Options> Units tab. There are a series of drop-down lists that allow you to select how the units are displayed. In your case, from the Weeks dropdown list select “w”. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1153

I cannot find the Sensitivity Analysis view.

October 14, 2015 Q: I cannot find the Sensitivity Analysis view. In your documentation you show a Sensitivity View , but I cannot see it on the Analysis tab. A: The Sensitivity View can be accessed either from the Workflow bar Analysis (if it is open) or the All Views button that is located on all of the ribbon tabs except for the Tools tab. If you have run Monte Carlo cost/schedule risk analysis and are in the Analysis tab of the Workflow bar and cannot see the Sensitivity Analysis view icon, you can use the arrows located on the top or bottom of the Workflow bar to scroll the icons up or down. This is a common occurrence when the software has been resized. Please note that Sensitivity analysis view will not be presented if you don't have any schedule (tasks). For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1152

Monte Carlo Cost Analysis in Microsoft Project

October 8, 2015 Q: Monte Carlo Cost Analysis in Microsoft Project We are running integrated cost and schedule monte carlo risk analysis using your Microsoft Project's addin. However, we are not seeing any results for the cost. A: If you are not seeing any results for cost risk analysis, it is typically because the cost data has been excluded from the Monte Carlo simulation. When running simulations on Project schedules, by default RiskyProject always runs analysis on the schedule. However, new with version 6, if you are either using the Addin to either calculate or export the results to the RiskyProject standalone, you are given the option to exclude some data types (including cost) as a way to improve performance and decrease the time required to complete the simulations, which can be extremely useful when analyzing extremely large schedules. To check whether or not you are excluding cost from the analysis, go to the Field Mappings dialog box, the same dialog in which you mapped the cost fields, and at the bottom there are a series of check boxes. If a check box is selected that data will be excluded from the analysis. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1150

Task success rate view

October 8, 2015 Q: Task success rate view We are trying to use success rate view. But we don’t get anything but 100% on all tasks. A: Success rates is a measure of how often an activity is actually performed during each iteration of the Monte Carlo simulation. Task execution and therefore success rates can be impacted by deadlines, risk outcome assignments and probabilistic or conditional branching. In the first two, tasks can be cancelled because they did not meet specific dates or a risk occurred. In the last, it may be that the project switches to a different branch due to one or more conditions not being met. In my experience, the Success Rate view provides the most powerful visualization of the results of a branching simulation and is very good at communicating the results to team members or other stakeholders. If you go to our Samples folder (C:\Program Files\Intaver\RiskyProject 6.1\Samples) and open the RP_Branching.alm, it provides a very nice illustrative example of how the Success Rate clearly visualizes the impact of the branching logic on project plan. We use the traffic like color scheme to indicate the success rates of each activity and the overall project going from green = high to red =low For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1148

How are deadlines used in Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis

October 5, 2015 Q: How are deadlines used in Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis We normally have deadlines defined in our schedules from Microsoft Project. How are they used in RiskyProject and will they affect the results of our schedule risk analysis. A:RiskyProject will recognize deadlines if they are defined in MSP or they can be set in RiskyProject after you have imported your schedule. Deadlines have 3 different options and are set in the Task Information > Deadlines for each task. No Actions: the deadline can be used only as a visualization on the Gantt chart End Task: the task will end at the deadline set and this will impact the results of the monte carlo schedule risk analysis. Cancel Task: the task will be cancelled and this number of times the task is cancelled will be reflected in the Success Rate chart. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1150

Error when importing xml

October 5, 2015 Q: Error when importing xml We are getting an unrecognised symbol error when importing an Microsoft Project xml into RiskyProject. A: Some text symbols that are entered into text or custom fields are not supported by the Microsoft Project xml schema. It is a known issue and one that we have been working for past several years in resolving. At this point though we believe we have resolved 99% of these errors by removing them from the xml file during the import, we still occasionally run into them. There are two ways that this can be resolved. The quickest way is if you have a copy of MS Project installed on the same computer as RiskyProject, you can use the Addin to transfer the schedule directly to RiskyProject. You can use the Field Mappings dialog (File->Map Microsoft Project Fields), where there is options at the bottom to explicitly exclude the Notes and Custom field data from the transfer and this will not impact the results of the analysis. If this is not possible, the alternatives are to remove unnecessary text from the project or create a copy and do the same or send us a copy of the file to examine. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1146

RiskyProject keeps opening when I run Monte Carlo

October 5, 2015 Q: RiskyProject keeps opening when I run Monte Carlo When I run a Monte Carlo simulation in the RiskyProject addin for Microsoft Project and then go to the Statistics report. Every time, I run a new scenario (changing uncertainties etc) the desktop version keeps opening along when the summary results opens. A: Both the RiskyProject Addin for Microsoft Project and the desktop version share the same underlying components. Two of those components are the calculation engine and the statistics report. The Statistics Report is different from the calculation engine in that the desktop mode has to be launched to provide the viewer. Once the desktop mode is open, it runs in the background for the remainder of time the Microsoft Project instance is open. After which anytime you run a simulation, the desktop version will appear. It does not affect the results of the simulation. Here is how can you view statistical report in Microsoft Project: (picture) For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1145

Statistical distributions in the microsoft project

October 5, 2015 Q: Statistical distributions in the microsoft project We are using the Microsoft Project Addin to run schedule risk analysis on most of our projects. However, in some of the schedules are coming from subcontractors and all of the text fields are being used. Is there a way to enter the distributions without using the text fields? A: As you most likely understand, monte carlo schedule risk analysis in addition to most likely estimates for duration, also require Low and High estimates, and a defined statistical distribution. E.g. Triangular, Beta, Lognormal. By default MS Project does not have a field specifically designated to contain the statistical distribution information, so we have to put aside a default field (field that is included in all project schedules) to include this information. Text fields are the only option we have for this type of information, so you have two options. The first is that you require your contractors to reserve a designated text field for this information. Alternatively, you can import the data into the RiskyProject desktop which comes with the Addin, this is not an issue as we have a designated data field on our schema that does not take up one of Project’s text fields. You can view this field in any of the Schedule views in RiskyProject, by adding the Statistical Distribution for Duration column. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1144

Printing Gantt Chart for Schedule Risk Analysis

October 2, 2015 Q: Printing Gantt Chart for Schedule Risk Analysis We would like to provide a printed out version of the Gantt charts, especially the Risk Adjusted Gantt chart, that shows the original and results from our Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis. A: The printing feature is controlled using the Page Setup menu that can be found in the File>Print menu options. The Print Preview dialog allows you to setup how ad-hoc reports (reports generated directly from the screen view) appear. You may need to indicate how many data columns that you would like to see. This is not dependent upon the current number of columns that are shown in the View. For example if you have 4 columns visible in the view, but enter 1 in the Print x Columns for view , only the first column from left to right will be included in the print out. It can be done not only for risk adjusted Gantt chart (results of schedule risk analysis), but also for any other views. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1142

Background colors for Schedule Risk Analysis views

October 2, 2015 Q: Background colors for Schedule Risk Analysis views Just updated to version 6. Really like the improvements to the performance of the Monte Carlo simulations, good job! Only beef I have is that that the background colors seem to have been changed. Some shading has been adding to the data columns, I would prefer if it were back to white. A: The formatting (background shading, borders etc.) are set in the Application Look dialog box. It is located in the Tools tab -> Resources and Settings group -> Application Look. Normally, when you update the new install will pick up the previous settings, but it can also pick up settings (themes, etc) from the Windows settings. To change or customize the look of the software, open the Application Look dialog. It has two tabs: Application Look and Theme. The Application Look allows you to select Microsoft scheme from Windows XP to Office 2010. In the Themes tab you can further customize grid borders and shading. You may try different combination of color themes. For more information please visit www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1143

Statistical distribution for risk outcomes

September 29, 2015 Q: Statistical distribution for risk outcomes Where can I change statistical distribution for risk outcomes? A: In schedule risk analysis risk events may have outcomes, defined by statistical distribution. First you need to enable statistical distribution for risk outcome. It is done in Schedule -> Project Options -> Risk tab. You will see a check box "Enable statistical distribution for risk outcome". Then you need to go to any risk assignment views or dialogs. For example, it can be done in Task Information Dialog (Risk tab). To see this dialog you may go to any task view and double click on Task ID and go to Risk Tab. If you have any risks, which have outcomes such as Fixed or Relative delay you may define low and high delay, and statistical distribution for the delay. You may need to scroll the grid within a risk tab to be presented see a drop down box for the statistical distribution. Some statistical distributions require entering some parameters. To update parameters of your statistical distribution of risk outcome double click on risk assignment ID within the same grid. You will be presented with Risk Assignment dialog. Then go to Distribution tab. Please note, that you will be able to change distribution parameters only if you define low and high outcome. For example you define relative delay. Your low outcome will be 10%, your high outcome will be 22%. Now you can define Beta distribution, which will represent these outcomes. Please visit Intaver Institute's forum for more information. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1140

Project success rate

September 29, 2015 Q: Project success rate How does RiskyProject calculates project success rate? A: Project success rate is calculated if project reaches Earliest Project Deadline, Latest Project Deadline, of Maximum Project Duration as a result of schedule risk analysis. Here is how these deadlines are defined: (Picture) To access this dialog box please click on Schedule -> Project Settings. These settings don't affect deterministic calculations (without any risks and uncertainties). They are only applied to Monte Carlo simulations. Here is how everything works. Let's assume that you define Maximum Project Duration as 1 year. During Monte Carlo simulations in 650 iterations calculated mean project duration exceeds 1 year and for remaining 350 iterations duration is less than 1 year. In this case project success rate will be 35%. Essentially it is a project deadline. Please note that you in some cases start time of the project can also affect success rate of the project. For example, you have Start-Finish links between predecessor and successor for some tasks. For this purposes we have Earliest Project Deadline. In such cases, project cannot start later than certain date and if it starts later on the certain iteration on Monte Carlo simulations, success rate will be reduced. Please visit Intaver Institute's forum for more information. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1141

Project duration is shorter than expected

September 25, 2015 Q: Project duration is shorter than expected We have assigned risks to the project schedule and the Low result we get seems unreasonably short. Do you know of any reasons for this? A: Often when we do unexpected results, we do recommend a reality check. It could be the results of an error in the schedule logic or in the risk assignments. If the schedule logic is sound, then most likely if you are model impacts using statistical distributions, the low or optimistic values for the ranges are too optimistic and the combination of risks impacts is giving you the result you are seeing. In addition, if you are using the risk outcome End Task, Cancel Task, or Cancel Task and all successors this can have an unexpectedly dramatic impact on the project duration, such that it ends early, but not successfully. Please visit Intaver Institute's forum for more information. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1137

What impact do risk triggers have on the Monte Carlo

September 25, 2015 Q: What impact do risk triggers have on the Monte Carlo We are identifying risks including descriptions, causes and triggers as key properties. From what we see, if you click in the field, it brings up the list of risks. Is this a form of risk correlation, ie. if the trigger risk occurs then the primary risk will occur and if so does this affect the results? A: Short answer is no it does not affect the results of your cost or schedule risks analysis. The trigger can be set as another risk however, if you click in the field, you will discover that it is an editable field. Therefore, you can identify a risk from the risk register as a trigger or you can type a statement to provide information about the what could “trigger” the risk. In the risk register and for reporting purposes, this information is only saved as an alphanumeric value that can be included in the Risk Register report etc. In the example below, you can see that text that has been added to the field. Please visit Intaver Institute's forum for more information. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1136

How do I correlate distributions for task duration?

September 25, 2015 Q: How do I correlate distributions for task duration? I am performing schedule risk analysis and would like to correlate uncertainties in some activities. Is there a way to do this? A: Task correlation is one way of accounting for how tasks can exhibit similar changes in durations due to common factors when you perform Monte Carlo schedule risks analysis. An example might be during an installation that requires a number of components that will only become obvious during the actual execution of the activity. Lets say that each component will take 1 day to install, and they could require as little as 3, as many as 9, but the estimate that it would most likely take 5. In addition, each component has to be painted and inspected. Each of these activities takes a day as well. So they would have Low, Most Likely, and High duration estimates for each of these activities of 3, 5, and 9 respectively. However, the durations of the painting and inspection activities is dependent upon the number of components installed. In this case, we would say the durations of the activities are correlated. In RiskyProject, we allow for simple task correlation, either on or off. The reason for this is that research has shown that for correlations between 0 and 1 do not add any true accuracy to the results of the analysis. To correlate activities, we insert the column Seed for Monte Carlo Simulation (for Duration). This exposes the seed for the activities. You then copy and paste the seed value from the first activity to all the other activities to which it is correlated. Please visit Intaver Institute's forum for more information. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1134

Best way to transfer schedule from Microsoft Project

September 23, 2015 Q: Best way to transfer schedule from Microsoft Project What is the best way to transfer A: We always recommend whenever possible use the RiskyProject Addin for Microsoft Project to move schedules into RiskyProject. The reason for this is two–fold. First, the import of project schedule into RiskyProject is much quicker using the Addin. The Addin filters out any unnecessary time series data and therefore only the essential data required for analysis is transferred. RiskyProject also allows you to exclude specific data types to speed up both the import, but also the analysis. These settings can be found in Map Microsoft Project Fields dialog (click on File -> Import). Second, using the Addin creates a link to between the Project and RiskyProject data. Once the link is created, if you update the project file and reimport into RiskyProject, RiskyProject will identify the previous data and will update is data accordingly with all previous risk data will persist. So next time you need to run a Monte Carlo risk analysis or manage risks the process should be fairly quick. In some cases Microsoft Project security settings prevent installing RiskyProject add-ins. In this case, you may always use XML export from Microsoft Project and import it in RiskyProject. Just click on Save as in Microsoft Project and select XML file format. Then go to RiskyProject. Click on File -> Open and select XML format. Please visit Intaver Institute's forum for more information. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1132

Difference between mitigation and response plans

September 20, 2015 Q: Difference between mitigation and response plans What is the difference for risk mitigation and response plans in RiskyProject and how does it reflected in schedule risk analysis? A: In project risk analysis and risk management risk mitigation plants are the set of activities plan which is designed eliminate to minimize impact of threats and maximize effect of opportunities. Mitigation plan is created during process of risk identification. Activities associated with mitigation plans usually part of the schedule and executed together with other activities of the schedule. Risk Response Plan is also a set activities plan which is designed eliminate to minimize impact of threats and maximize effect of opportunities. However risk response plan is created during process of project planning, but executed after risk occurred. In RiskyProject risk mitigation and response plans are defined in Mitigation / Reponse View. Risk mitigation plans are assigned to the risks in Waterfall tab of risk information dialog box (when you double click on risk ID in risk register). Risk Response plan are assign to the risk in Properties Tab of risk information dialog box. It is important to note that you may have many mitigation plans per one risk but only one risk response plan. Please visit Intaver Institute's forum for more information. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1131

RiskyProject keeps asking for license code

September 23, 2015 Q: RiskyProject keeps asking for license code We just had all of our computers updated and I reinstalled RiskyProject. Everytime I open it, it is asking for the license code. A: License information is stored in the system registry. If you are getting this message it means that the software cannot find the license information in the designated index in the registry. This occurs for two reasons. First of all, you may have a 3rd party registry cleaning tool that doesn’t recognize the license settings and is removing it. However most registry cleaning don't touch application software. So this is very unlikely scenario. Please check with your IT to see if this is the case. Second, it could be that the license information is not being written to the registry. This happens if you user does not have write access to the registry. The changes that were made to your computers may be the cause of either of these issues and you will need your IT people to assist in resolving this. Please visit Intaver Institute's forum for more information. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1133

Defaults for risk mitigation and response plans

September 20, 2015 Q: Defaults for risk mitigation and response plans Every time I add a mitigation activity to the waterfall chart, it seems to automatically decrease the impact by 5% which I don’t want. It looks like a default but I don’t see any setting in the options. A: When you are creating your risk mitigation plans in the mitigation waterfall chart, each activity that you add to the risk mitigation waterfall chart automatically is added as a mitigation plan or activity in the Mitigation/Response view. Each of these steps represents a planned activity which will change either the probability and/or impact of a risk, which in turn lowers the risk score. RiskyProject has hardcoded default values for reducing probability and impact (5%). If you do not modify these values, they are automatically added to the waterfall chart. You can set these default values in advance if you add the plans to the Mitigation/Response View. The default values can be added to the Risk Probability Reduction and Risk Impact Reduction fields for each plan. Please visit Intaver Institute's forum for more information. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1130

How do I transfer my license to another computer?

September 19, 2015 Q: How do I transfer my license to another computer? I have a new computer and need to move my license. A: According to the End User License Agreement, a license can only be installed on a single computer. Therefore the first step is to uninstall the software from your previous computer if it is still going to be used for other purposes. Second, you should notify our support team at support@intaver.com or by calling us at +1(403)692-2252 of your intentions to transfer the license. In the email, please include the license number and end user information: Name, Company, email address, phone number, as this will help them locate your license record. Once our support team have notification that your license has been uninstalled, the support team will check the license status. If the license was purchased recently within the 1 year free maintenance and support period, you can download the latest version from our web site. If the license was purchased more than a year ago, it may not be valid for the latest version. In which case, you will need to either upgrade your license or install a copy of the version that is compatible with your license. If you do not have a copy, you can request one from our support team. To check you license number please use About box (question mark at the right top corner of RiskyProject): Please visit Intaver Institute's forum for more information. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1129

How do I share risks?

September 19, 2015 Q: How do I share risks? We have a generic set of risks that include probabilities and impacts that we would like to make available for all of our projects. What is the best way to do this? A: This really depends upon the information that is included with the risks. If the risks for schedule risk analysis and risk management just are a list of risk names then you can save Risk Registers as a file (*.alr) . These risk registers can then be kept on a local network drive and then at the beginning of your project then can be loaded into a blank risk register. To save a risk register, go to the Risks tab, Export/Import group, click Risk Register, Save Risk Register. You will be prompted to save the risk register file. Alternatively to load the risk register, click Load Risk Register to select the risk register you want to load into the project. (picture) If you would like to save list of risk assignments that would be used for quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis you can create a risk template. Risk templates are created in the the Global Risk Assignments view. In the Global Risk Assignments view, create your list of risk assignments. Assignments must include Risk name, Assignment type (Task or Resource), Chance, Outcome Types, and statistical distribution of outcomes (if enabled). Risk assignments can also include other information such as Moment of Risk. Risk templates do include qualitative properties such as Risk Owner, Definition, etc. Please visit Intaver Institute's forum for more information. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1128&sid=fb4886934cf1f7c77c635b4b38f8f19b

Risk Chart for Portfolio Risk Analysis

September 16, 2015 Q: Risk Chart for Portfolio Risk Analysis Can you explain how the Enterprise Risked Project Chart works for RiskyProject Enterprise? A: The Risked Projects chart shows the level or relative schedule and cost risk for each project in the Portfolio. It differs from other schedule and cost risk analysis that we can derive from Monte Carlo simulation in that it provides insight into how “risky” projects as a function of the project budget and schedule. For example: Project A with a budget of $ 1M has $100 K of risk, Project B with a budget of $ 2 M also has $100 K of risk. Both have the same actual amount of cost at risk, however Project A has twice as much of relative risk. From the Risk Projects chart we cannot tell why one project has more relative risk than others, but it provides a additional information that supports the decision making process. It may be an expected result, but could indicate that further investigation and management decisions are required. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1127

Risks Assigned to the Project Schedule

September 16, 2015 Q: Risks Assigned to the Project Schedule Is there an easy way to quickly view how all project risks are assigned? As part of our project reviews we someway to show and justify our risk assignment. A: In order to perform schedule risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulations with risk events or risk driver, you need to assign risks to tasks or resources. There are several ways to view how your risks are assigned to the project. If you would like to see the risk assignments for each task, you can go to the Task Information > Risks tab. This will list each risk that has been assigned to the task. (picture) The same is true if you would like to view which risks are assigned to particular resources. In this case, you would go to the Resources view > Resource Information> Risks. Finally, in the Report tab > Report: All Risks view you can generate a report that includes all task and resource risk assignments for each risk. This report can be printed directly from the File > Print menu, or saved in CSV format. The report can be customized to include or exclude specific risk information. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1126

Export Monte Carlo simulation data

September 16, 2015 Q: Export Monte Carlo simulation data Is there a quick way to move the simulation data from RiskyProject to a spreadsheet? A: Yes, once you have run your Monte Carlo simulations all of the data is available to export as a CSV (comma delimited file). All results including schedule, finish times, cost are included in the file To export your simulation data, run a simulation. In the Project View or Results Gantt, select the tasks, whose data you want to export. You can press down the or keys to select more than one task. Then go to the File menu, Export> Statistics. You will be prompted to save the file to a local folder. Please note that each iteration creates a row. If you run a large amount of iterations (>2500) be aware that it will create a single row for each iteration. You may also copy results of Monte Carlo simulations for the particular tasks to the clipboard the paste into Excel. To do it double click on any Gantt bar within a Gantt chart. Then you may right click on particular statistical distribution, and select Copy Data to Clipboard. You may also enlarge statistical distribution by double clicking on it and then again right click on the chart, and select Copy Data to Clipboard. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1125

How are risks scored at the Program level

September 16, 2015 Q: How are risks scored at the Program level We are using RiskyProject Enterprise. Could you please tell me, how are risks scored at the Program level? A: RiskyProject is consistent in the way that it calculates risk at both the project or program level. Risks that appear in a Program (Summary Project) risk register are there because either they have been assigned to one or more projects in the program or are being managed at the program level. If a risk is being calculated at only the project or program level, the risks scores calculations are fairly simple: impact x probability. For qualitative analysis, this is very straight forward. For quantitative cost and schedule Monte Carlo analysis, the impact is a calculated value and can be affected by how the risk is assigned to project tasks, the complexity of the schedule and other factors. Impact is calculated by measuring how the risk correlates with project cost and schedule values for each iteration. This correlation is then adjusted (normalized) as then final score generated. At the program level, risk scores depend on the level that the risk is being managed at. If the risk is being managed on a project by project basis, then the risk score takes into account the likelihood that the risk could occur on either of the projects. If the risk is being managed at the program level, then the risk score is calculated qualitatively and only uses the chance and probability as inputs. For more information please visit: www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1124

Changing risk register at the same time

September 14, 2015 Q: Changing risk register at the same time We are using RiskyProject Enterprise for portfolio risk analysis. We have 20 people using software at the same time. My question is what happen if few people update risk register at the same time. Do they overwrite each other's changes? Do you have a mechanism to prevent it? A: RiskyProject has a system of locks, which prevents multiple user from editing any data a the same time. It includes not only Risk Register, but also project schedules, mitigation and response plans, and other portfolio settings. For example, if one user opens project schedule and starts editing this, nobody else can open this schedule at the same time. The project schedule will be locked. The schedule will be automatically unlocked after one day. However administrator can unlock project schedule any time. It may be required if somebody open project schedule or risk and forgot to close it. In this case nobody else can edit the schedule of the risk until administrator unlocks it or one day expires. Only one user can perform Monte Carlo simulations of one schedule, however many users can perform Monte Carlo simulations of different schedules at the same time. The user cannot make any changes to risk register or the project hierarchy, if somebody else updated it and current user does not have most recent version. The user will be presented with the message "Please refresh Risk Register (or project hierarchy)". The changes can be made only to the most recent version of the hierarchy. The same process works for the list of mitigation and response plans. For more information please visit: www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1123

User Permissions in RiskyProject

September 10, 2015 Q: User Permissions in RiskyProject We are planning to use RiskyProject Enterprise and are planning eventually have 3-4 divisions using the system on the same database. Is there a process to restrict user’s access to specific projects? Some of the results of the monte carlo simulations are not considered appropriate for members of other teams etc. A: Yes, RiskyProject Enterprise comes with a User Administration Console. The User Administration Console can set up permissions for any user to any part of the project hierarchy. The idea is that each user may have an access to the specific projects and cannot see information (risks) assigned to other projects. To do this, click the File icon (on the top left corner of the screen), and choose Users. Then click the Project Permissions tab and select a hierarchy node in the left pane. All users are listed in the right pane. You can allow or deny user access to the node you selected by clicking the check box beside the user name. For more information please visit: www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1121

Risk assumptions vs. risk objectives

September 28, 2015 Q: Risk assumptions vs. risk objectives Do you have any specific rules how to define textual risk properties, such as risk assumptions and risk objectives? A: There are not specific rules how you define risk assumptions, objective, description, and other textual information in RiskyProject. However we recommend our clients to establish some rules in organization, what information correspond with these fields in risk form: (see picture) For example, for objectives some organization define overall name of mitigation efforts, associated with the risk. In general mitigation plan associated with the risk has a multiple steps. Objective may be a general description, what needs to be achieved, by mitigating this risk. Assumptions can be, for example, conditions for the risk to occur. For more information please visit: www.intaver.com

Filtering Risks

September 28, 2015 Q: Filtering Risks Is it possible to see risks belonging to one category for entire portfolio in RiskyProject Enterprise? A: In RiskyProject Enterprise if you don't open any particular project, you will see a risk register for entire portfolio. If you open particular project schedule by double clicking on it, you will see a green bar in right upper corner corner indicating the name of the project. In this case if you go to risk register view, you will see a risk register for the opened project. At the center of risk register view you will find a drop down list called "Hierarchy based on": (see picture) This box allows you to filter risk register based on category or select all risks for specific category only. If you select "Categories", you will see the hierarchy based on category name. But you can select only one specific category, for example Duration. In this case you will be presented with the list of risks for this specific category. Please note that one risk may affect multiple categories. For more information please visit: www.intaver.com

Project duration is shorter than expected

September 25, 2015 Q: Project duration is shorter than expected We have assigned risks to the project schedule and the Low result we get seems unreasonably short. Do you know of any reasons for this? A: Often when we do unexpected results, we do recommend a reality check. It could be the results of an error in the schedule logic or in the risk assignments. If the schedule logic is sound, then most likely if you are model impacts using statistical distributions, the low or optimistic values for the ranges are too optimistic and the combination of risks impacts is giving you the result you are seeing. In addition, if you are using the risk outcome End Task, Cancel Task, or Cancel Task and all successors this can have an unexpectedly dramatic impact on the project duration, such that it ends early, but not successfully. For more information please visit: www.intaver.com