Project risk score scale

December 23 2015

Q: Project risk score scale
I saw a risk scale on the project summary diagram. What does it mean and how it is calculated?

A: Project risk score scale is presented when you perform calculation in Microsoft Project. It is part of project summary dialog.
When you double click on project bar in RiskyProject Enterprise, the same dialog will come up. Project risk score is calculated separately for duration, cost, and other parameters. If there are no uncertainties in cost and other parameters, risk score fields will be empty. Project risk score is calculated based on empirical formula: project risk score equals 2 if all risks increase project duration or cost two times. If project risk score is less than 1, it is an opportunity or cancellation, so due to risk and uncertainties project will cost less or take less time. Also please remember that project can be cancelled. In this case it will also take less time and cost less.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1200

Probabilities outside of the distributions cut off

December 23, 2015

Q: Probabilities outside of the distributions cut off

Looks like the distribution in RiskyProject only considers the duration from Low to High (there is a kind of 'cut' at the beginning/end). Is that right? Because sometimes projects/tasks have so much delay that they will take longer than the highest duration.

A: For the distribution attached, only the probability distribution from Low to High is used in the simulation. Therefore significant delays, which would occur outside of these boundaries is not modeled. Normal and lognormal distributions are unbounded; therefore it is possible that they could go to infinity. So it could a chance that duration of the project will be very long which could be unrealistic. Therefore, with these distribution types we use a cut off. The solutions to this are:
- increase cut off by increasing the range and then playing with std. deviation parameter or selecting P1/P99
- use another statistical distribution, such as beta. It may also require increasing the ranges.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1199

How do I add the Risk Matrix to a report.

December 15, 2015

Q: How do I add the Risk Matrix to a report.

As part of our project risk reporting we would like to include the Risk Matrix, is there any way to add this to the Risk Register report for the project portfolio?

A: The risk register report only includes the risk matrix for specific risks, there is no way to add the risk matrix showing all of the project risks to the risk register. The Risk Register reporting views can all be used for Ad-hoc report though and specifically the Risky Matrix with all of the project risks using either the Printing feature or you can save the Risk Matrix as an image.
To print the risk matrix, open the Risk Matrix View. Select the risks that you want to include. The from the File menu, choose Print, Print Preview to view the chart. Then click Print. To save the risk matrix as an image, right-click on the risk matrix and from the shortcut menu, click Copy chart to file. You can then save the matrix as an image on a local drive. All major image types are supported.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1197

Question about the Addin simulations with incomplete data

December 15 2015

Q: Question about the Addin simulations with incomplete data

One of users had incorrectly added information required for selecting the statistical distribution as show in the Mapping dialog. He was just entering in a text description “triangular” in the field he had mapped, in this case Text 27. From the documentation it appears that we need to use the Duration dialog box and it adds a string of code to the text field that has been mapped. Is this correct.

A: The Addin has been designed to be very flexible. We strongly recommend that users always use the dialog boxes provide in the Input Distributions group on the ribbon to enter or modify statistical distribution data. This will ensure consistency in the data in the simulations. We do allow for users to manually update the data once it is entered as some find this to be more convenient. In which case, the Addin will check to see if there are differences between the values entered in Statistical Distribution text field and the Durations for Low and High estimates. If there is a discrepancy, the Addin will use the values in the Duration fields for the simulation. In addition, if the Addin finds values in the Low and High duration fields as setup up in the mapping, but does not find the statistical distribution code, it will automatically assign a triangular distribution and allow the user to run the simulation.
Again we strongly recommend user to use the Statistical Distribution to add and maintain the low and high estimates and statistical distribution type for the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1198

Sensitivity Analysis

Decempber 15, 2015

Q: Sensitivity Analysis

I have been viewing some of you videos and it was showing the sensitivity as a % rather than a decimal value (eg. 45% vs 0.345). It seems to provide a bit more intuitive value when it is a %. I have looked in the Project options views and Calculations etc and can’t seem to find anything to switch it over.

A: As you noticed the sensitivity value can be shown using two types of methods. The first is the Spearman rank correlation and is the standard calculation method that we use to calculate all correlation and sensitivity (which is a type of correlation) during the monte carlo simulation. However as you noted, it is not particularly user friendly especially for anyone who is not familiar with these types of statistical analysis. The % values you are seen is call Contribution to Variance. This calculation uses the Spearman rank correlation, but normalizes the values to provide a % that the particular risk or activity contributes to the variance that we see in a specific project parameter.
You can select which method in the Sensitivy view not the Project Options. After running a simuilation, go the Analysis views, Sensitivity Analysis. At the top right corner click the Sensitivity Calculation Algorithm button and you can switch between the methods.

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Tornado Chart is missing

December 15 2015

Q: Tornado Chart is missing

After we run the Monte Carlo risks analysis, the Tornado chart only seems to show a few of the activities and the rest are filtered out. Why is this happening and how can add more activities to the view?

A: In an effort to simplify the interface and the amount of data shown in this view, we apply a cut off value such that it only shows activities or risks to which selected project parameters show a significant sensitivity. This is consistent with our goal to always provide views that prioritize and rank critical activities or risks so that they can be easily identified and support the project decision making process.
The filter is applied using a minimum sensitivity coefficient. By default, it is set to 0.16 which we typically find is a reasonable cut off value which will display the most critical values without adding populating too many rows in the Tornado chart.
You can modify this sensitivity coefficient in the Project Options, Calculations tab. Depending on the size and complexity of your project, you can experiment with this value so that it meets your analysis requirements.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1195

Monte Carlo simulation results for tasks

December 9, 2015

Q: Monte Carlo simulation results for tasks

Have you thought of any easier method to bring up the task charts? Once we have run the simulations, it would be nice just to select a task and bring up the results. Now it takes a couple of extra clicks, which seems unnecessary.

A: After you have run the Monte Carlo schedule risk assessment, you can quickly open the Task charts in any of the Gantt Chart views by double-clicking on the task bar. The charts are available in the Project View, Results Gantt, Success Rate, and Crucial Task.
In the example below, we can see the Crucial Task view is open, by double-click on the task’s bar in the Gantt Chart portion of the view, you can quickly bring up the simulation results, without either using the right-click menu or the Task Simulation Results buttons found on the Analysis tab.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1193

What does the task scatter plot do?

December 9, 2015

Q: What does the task scatter plot do?

We are putting together a dashboard and are wondering if the scatter plot should be included. What insights can we get from it above what is shown in the histogram/cumulative probability.

A: The scatter plot is an valuable visualization to show the relationhips between one variable and another. In task scatter plot, for each iteration it plots the task cost or duration vs the project cost or duration. From the pattern of the dots, we can see how tightly correlated the project results are to the task results.
For example in the scatter plot below there is a relatively strong positive relationship between the project cost (y axis) and the task cost (x axis) . This is indicated by the football shape of the plot as well as its orientation of bottom left to top right. This indicates that this task is a main driver of the project cost.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1194

Risk arrows on the Gantt Chart

December 9, 2015

Q: Risk arrows on the Gantt Chart

We have found that showing the location of the risks on the Gantt chart is very useful during our project reviews. Are you considering anyway show details of the risk without having to leave the Gantt chart. We think that this type of interaction would be very useful.

A: The risk arrows on the Gantt bars lets the team know where the risks are assigned to the schedule and their criticality (green, yellow, or red). Each of the risk indicators (arrows) on the Gantt bars represents not just a risk assignment, but the risk assignment to a particular risk category( Cost, Schedule or other category). As you noted if you hover over the risk indicator, a pop up bubble opens up with the risk name as below:
If you double-click on the risk indicator, it will display the Local Risk Assignment information. In addition this information is editable, so you can use this feature to modify risk assignment (chance or outcome) if required from the Gantt chart.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1192

Lags in RiskyProject

December 9, 2015

Q: Lags in RiskyProject

I have read that lags can create issues when running schedule risk analysis. However the schedules I have require them due to actual delays between when one activity starts and the next one can begin. Are there any standard rules about when you should keep or remove lags.

A: Lags are typically put in place by schedulers when there will be a delay in between the end of one activity and the start of another one. This often occurs in construction projects when activities are delayed until the concrete is finished setting. These types of lags, with finish start relationships are legitimate and should be kept in schedule. Lags which are put into to artificially set preconceived dates are a form of gaming a schedule to provide buffers or margin and should be avoided in any schedules, in particular ones that are going to be used for schedule risk analysis.
In schedule risk analysis, the goal is to have as few constraints as possible so that the project updates naturally to changes in activity durations. Any type of logic that impedes this will lessen the validity of your analysis.

In RiskyProject we have a probabilistic lag. It is defined in Predecessors tab of Task Information Dialog:

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1191

Low and high duration for summary tasks

December 3, 2015

Q: Low and high duration for summary tasks

When I use the add in with MS project 2010 why does the program calculate low and high durations for subordinate tasks but does not for the summary task. I would be pleased if you could advise me where i am going wrong.

A: In Microsoft Project, summary tasks are inert and all they do is provide a rollup of the underlying subordinate tasks. The same is true for our simulations; we can only use the subordinate values as inputs.
If we edited the low and high summary estimates, it would give the appearance that we are using the summary values for the simulation, which would be incorrect and could possibly create discrepancies between probabilistic results for the summary and subordinate tasks.
Therefore to ensure there is no misunderstanding, we do not modify the values for the summary activities for the Low and High Duration columns.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1190

Distribution for risk impact

December 3, 2015

Q: Distribution for risk impact

When should you use a probability distribution instead of a single value for impacts? Are there any rules or guidelines about when you should use statistical distributions instead of singe values for risk impacts?

A: There really are no established rules about when you should use on over the other. However, when we do a risk assessment generally for impacts we look at the answer to the question “If risk x occurs, what will happen”. If this a well known risk and impacts a specific WBS or activity and the answer is “we will have to replace this widget and it will cost this and take this long to fix.
 If the answer is, “We have ordered these parts many times and the cost has not varied in the past couple of years and we have performed this activity many times” the you can feel very confident in have a single impacts for cost or schedule.
However, if the answer is, “ Last time we went to order the parts from procurement, they weren’t available from our regular supplier, so we had to source them elsewhere, They cost a bit more and the procurement process caused delays. We also had to revise some of our procedures because the equipment was not exactly the same”. Then this is a good opportunity to try estimate best case and worst case for both schedule and cost and use this to define a probability distribution for what he impacts of the risk could be.
In our experience, if you ask enough questions, most risk impacts will be assessed as probabilistic

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1189

Fine tuning statistical distributions

December 3, 2015

Q: Fine tuning statistical distributions

We would like to fine tune some of the statistical distributions we use for our schedule risk analysis based on historical data. Typically we have been using triangular distributions, but based on our experience we think that this puts too much probability on the boundaries.

A: RiskyProject has many other distributions available, and you can to fine tune parameters of them.
You can fine tune or customize the statistical distribution for Schedule (as well as other parameters) in the Task Information > Distributions.
In the Distributions dialog, click the Duration tab. You can select a distribution from the Distribution drop down list. Depending upon your selection, you will be presented with distribution specific parameters that you can modify. For example for BetaPert you can modify the Mean or for LogNormal you can define the boundaries.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1188

2016 Events for Intaver Institute

December 2, 2015

2016 Events for Intaver Institute

Intaver Institute Inc. will attend as an exhibitor or make presentations on at least six major events in 2016. Our next event will be Construction CPM Conference in New Orleans, LA (January 31 - February 5, 2016, Sheraton Canal Street). Construction CPM conferences focuses on the Critical Path Method of Planning and Scheduling Analysis, including project risk analysis and risk management. Intaver Institute Inc. will present its RiskyProject software suite. We will also make a presentation on theoretical aspects of project risk analysis and in particular our Event Chain Methodology.
For more information please visit our events page.


http://www.intaver.com/index-events.html

December 1, 2015

Q: How can I add project information to the reports

We would like to add project information to our reports, such an the Project Name, Date and other information to headers and footers. Is there a way to do this.

A: You can provide additional project information that is included in the Project Settings in addition to creation and modification dates. You can add (or remove) this information to the report headers or footers in the Page Setup dialog box.
To find this, go the the File menu, Print Page Setup. The Header and Footer information can be modified by selecting or clearing the checkboxes associated with the data types. If you use RiskyProject Enterprise this information stays in the database. If you use RiskyProject Professional or Lite this information stays in the system registry.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1187

December 1, 2015

Q: Best way to modify risks assigned to individual task?

HI, we used the drag and drop to mass assign risks to tasks, but now would like fine tune some of the risk impacts for cost. What is the best way to do this?

A: The Drag N”Drop view is a quick way to assign risks to multiple activities, but as you have found you have to apply the same probabilities and impacts to all of the task. So in cases, such as when you want to keep the same probability (which makes sense) but different levels of impacts to improve the validity of your monte carlo risk analysis, then you may want to look at a few methods.
First, if you open a risk in the Risk Register, in the Assign to tasks or Resources tab, you can modify the risk assignments for each task.
Alternatively, if you would like to modify them not by risk, but by activity, if you select a task and open the Task Information >Risk. You can edit the risk information for that task.
Finally, you can use one of the Local Risk views (Task or Resources) . These views can be used to add or modify risk assignments for tasks or resources. If you select a single task, it will show the risks only for that specific task. However if you select 2 or more tasks, it applies Boolean logic and will show risks that are common to all of the selected tasks.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1186

December 1, 2015

Q: What happened to the Local Risk views?

Hi, we recently upgraded to version 6 and one of the views Local Risks we have used in the past is gone.We like to use this when going over the results of our monte carlo simulations with the team.

A: In version 6.1 you may noticed the new Drag and drop risk, but the Local risk view provides a nice overview of how risks are assigned to the tasks without having to go to the Task Information dialog or one of the reporting views. It allows us to look at assumptions for particular activities and quickly modifly risks.
In RiskyProject version 6.1 the Local risks views are still available, but have been moved out of the main ribbon and workflow due to space requirements. You can open the local Risk views suing the All Views button located on the ribbon and workflow bar. Click on the Local Risk view you want to open.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1185

December 1, 2015

Q: Where is cost variance?

We have project with actuals for schedule and cost and we can see the Actuals plotted on the chart. Why can’t I see anything for the cost variance?

A: In RiskyProject you need you Cost Analysis view. You can find in to workflow bar on right hand side under Analysis.
After you have run your Monte Carlo simulations, if you have actuals, as you have indicated you can see the Actuals plot line on the chart. You need to use the slider to show cost variance on specific time periods. By default the slider handle is located on the bottom left of the chart and you might not have noticed it. Check out the picture below.

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November 26, 2015

Q: How do I increase/decrease size of font in printed reports.

The font size on the printed reports is a bit smaller that we would like. Is there anyway to increase the size?

A: For any report, whether it is the monte carlo simulation results, the risk register report, or any ad-hoc reporting from a view, you can modify the font size by changing the height of the rows in the view. The system will automatically resize the font to match the height of the row.
To increase the size of the font in your printed reports:
1. From the File menu, click Print > Page Setup.
2. Enter in the desired value in the Height of one item box. You can experiment by checking changes to the font size in the

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1183

November 26, 2015

Q: Two Addin tabs in Microsoft Project

I'm using the RiskyProject Lite integration with MS project 2010. schedule in MS Project, I always have two RiskyProject Lite6 tabs in MS Project. Please advise how to fix rather than working around as described.

A: The dual tabs is normally, but not always, due to an incomplete uninstall of the software, where for unknown reasons the Windows installer does not remove references to the Addin. In these cases, if the software is reinstalled it creates an identical reference to the Addin in the Project Add-in Manager. We can remove the reference without editing the registry in the Options.
1. Open MS Project 2010.
2. Click the File tab on the ribbon.
3. Click Options.
4. Click Add-Ins
5. You should see two RiskyProject Addin on the Active Application Add-Ins.
6. In the Manage drop-down list at the bottom of the dialog, select Com Add-ins and then click GO. There will be two entries for the Addin listed. If you highlight the Addin, it will show the location of the addin code in the Location reference.
7. Select one of the entries and click Remove. If this fails to remove the Addin entry, clear the checkbox and click OK. This will disable one of the tabs, so you do not have two.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1182

November 26, 2015

Q: Correlating multiple risks

Let us assume that we have 3 events (Event 1, Event 2 and Event 3) and we want to correlate Event 1 with Event 3 and Event 2 with Event 3. But we don't want to correlate Event 1 with Event 2. How can that be modelled at RiskyProject?
I am asking because when I correlate Event 1 with Event 3, and then Event 3 with Event 2, RiskyProject automatically correlates Event 1 with Event 2. I am working on my thesis on the implementation of ECM in the construction of a bridge with RiskyProject. I would like you to answer a question if it is easy. Thank you very much in advance.

A: You have asked a very interesting question and given the current risk modeling in RiskyProject there is no direct method to do this type of correlation. Because RiskyProject use the risk assignment Seed to correlate risks, if you correlate 1&3 and 2&3, then 1&2 will be automatically correlated.
E.g If Risk 1 risk assignment has a seed of 0001 and is correlated to Risk 3, then Risk 3 will automatically be given the seed of 0001. Then if risk 2 is correlated to Risk 3, then Risk 2 will also be given the seed of 0001.
Risk correlations can be viewed and assigned for each task in the Task Information, Risks tab, right-click on a Risk and select Risk Information. Click the Correlations tab.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1181

November 26, 2015

Q: Importing resource leveled schedules

I have a question on how to best handle resource leveling in risky project. In my MS Project schedule I have leveling delay to ensure that the nominal schedule is in balance however this information is not transferred to Risky Project. My question is, what is recommended strategy for resource constrained schedules in risky project.

A: We do not currently perform resource leveling in RiskyProject as there are several issues with probabilistic resource leveling whose solution is unclear. For example, all if not most, scheduling software have proprietary algorithms in regards to how the resource leveling is actually performed and how each resource is allocated. Each of these software may save the level schedule in different formats. Therefore because of this uncertainty, at the current time we recommend that after users import their schedule they create explicit Finish Start links between the activities resources to which the resources are assigned. This will roughly approximate the effect of resource leveling on schedules.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1180