November 20, 2015
Q: User log in RiskyProject Enterprise
Can see how many people logged on and what changes did they make in the RiskyProject Enterprise?
A: RiskyProject Enterprise session log can be found in Files->Users->Logon History. It includes list of all activities and closed sessions with user name and computer ID, so you can see who logged on to the system and when. Administrator can delete sessions from the log. If logoff time is empty, it means that session is in progress of the user did not properly logged off (shut down computer or killed RiskyProject).
To see other information related to use activities you may use risk history: double click on risk ID, and then go to history tab. Administrators can edit these logs for all users, while users can edit only their own records. You cannot see any log if user changes schedules, or import schedule from Microsoft Project or Primavera to RiskyProject.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
Thursday 26 November 2015
Risk Outcome Cancel Task and Successors
November 20, 2015
Q: Risk Outcome Cancel Task and Successors
What risk outcome "Cancel task and all successors" means if I have complex network and multiple paths?
A: If your define a risk and risk outcome is "Cancel Task + All successors", it would mean that this task will can cancelled and all successors of this tasks will be canceled at the same time with the same probability. In the example bellow risk is applied to the first task called "Risk1", but "Risk2" and "Risk3" will also be cancelled at the same time. Cancelation means that duration will be set to zero. Cost of cancelled task depends when cancelation event occurred and cost accrual rules. RiskyProject has a notion of moment of risk. Risk may occur any time during a course of activity. It is defined by statistical distribution. If risk occurred at the middle of activities and cost accrual is set to prorated, than RiskyProject will calculate cost as 50% of total cost. If risk outcome is "Cancel Task + All successors", the same rule will be applied to all successors of this task.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
Q: Risk Outcome Cancel Task and Successors
What risk outcome "Cancel task and all successors" means if I have complex network and multiple paths?
A: If your define a risk and risk outcome is "Cancel Task + All successors", it would mean that this task will can cancelled and all successors of this tasks will be canceled at the same time with the same probability. In the example bellow risk is applied to the first task called "Risk1", but "Risk2" and "Risk3" will also be cancelled at the same time. Cancelation means that duration will be set to zero. Cost of cancelled task depends when cancelation event occurred and cost accrual rules. RiskyProject has a notion of moment of risk. Risk may occur any time during a course of activity. It is defined by statistical distribution. If risk occurred at the middle of activities and cost accrual is set to prorated, than RiskyProject will calculate cost as 50% of total cost. If risk outcome is "Cancel Task + All successors", the same rule will be applied to all successors of this task.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
Low and high duration in Microsoft Project
November 20, 2015
Q: Low and high duration in Microsoft Project
Hi, we are evaluating RiskyProject and it seems that even though I changed estimates for low and high, it still seems to be calculating with previous numbers.
A: When you are using the RiskyProject Addin to run schedule risks analysis, there are a few key things to be aware of. You must identify the field that you will be using for the Low and High estimates in the Field Mapping. By default it is Text11, but can be any text field that is available. Once this is mapped, you should not change this setting as this is where the Addin looks to apply statistical distribution during the Monte Carlo simulation.
When you are first adding the low and high estimates, you must provide a statistical distribution by using the Input Distribution > Duration dialog box.
Once this is done, you can modify the Low and High estimates without using the dialog box. However , this will bypass any error checks that are done when you input the data, for example you cannot enter a low estimate that is greater than the base duration. Looking at your file, I found a few things that could be causing the issues you are seeing. If you are modifying the data without using Duration dialog box, it is possible to enter values in which Low > Base or High < Base or Low which could cause errors.
If you look at the image below, I have indicated a few issues in the data that should be addressed.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
Q: Low and high duration in Microsoft Project
Hi, we are evaluating RiskyProject and it seems that even though I changed estimates for low and high, it still seems to be calculating with previous numbers.
A: When you are using the RiskyProject Addin to run schedule risks analysis, there are a few key things to be aware of. You must identify the field that you will be using for the Low and High estimates in the Field Mapping. By default it is Text11, but can be any text field that is available. Once this is mapped, you should not change this setting as this is where the Addin looks to apply statistical distribution during the Monte Carlo simulation.
When you are first adding the low and high estimates, you must provide a statistical distribution by using the Input Distribution > Duration dialog box.
Once this is done, you can modify the Low and High estimates without using the dialog box. However , this will bypass any error checks that are done when you input the data, for example you cannot enter a low estimate that is greater than the base duration. Looking at your file, I found a few things that could be causing the issues you are seeing. If you are modifying the data without using Duration dialog box, it is possible to enter values in which Low > Base or High < Base or Low which could cause errors.
If you look at the image below, I have indicated a few issues in the data that should be addressed.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
Saturday 14 November 2015
November 9, 2015
Q: Restoring Links with Microsoft Project files
I have made a *.mpp project and from the MS project started the riskyproject application. However when I move both files I am not able maintain the link between the two program. What shall I do? Where can tie files together again?
A: The file linkage that you mention is based upon the location of the files. When you use the Addin to export the data from Microsoft Project to RiskyProject it creates a link in your registry that includes the file names. The link includes the path and name of both files for example c:\My Documents\Test.mpp=c:\My Documents\Test.alm.
The linkage feature only works if the location of the mpp file is the same. For example, if you move the mpp file location, when you export the data, RiskyProject will look to see if there is already a mapping saved in the registry. But because the file is moved, it will not find a match and it creates a new file, but it is now linked to the moved mpp file.
However if the data in the Microsoft Project file is the same and you can import your risks from your existing alm file as risks are linked using the task unique ID in Microsoft Project and these do not change even if you delete or add new tasks.
To import the risks, in RiskProject choose File (icon in the top left) > Import > Risks From Another Project. Browse to the original *.alm file and click OK to import the risks.
For more information please visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1175
Q: Restoring Links with Microsoft Project files
I have made a *.mpp project and from the MS project started the riskyproject application. However when I move both files I am not able maintain the link between the two program. What shall I do? Where can tie files together again?
A: The file linkage that you mention is based upon the location of the files. When you use the Addin to export the data from Microsoft Project to RiskyProject it creates a link in your registry that includes the file names. The link includes the path and name of both files for example c:\My Documents\Test.mpp=c:\My Documents\Test.alm.
The linkage feature only works if the location of the mpp file is the same. For example, if you move the mpp file location, when you export the data, RiskyProject will look to see if there is already a mapping saved in the registry. But because the file is moved, it will not find a match and it creates a new file, but it is now linked to the moved mpp file.
However if the data in the Microsoft Project file is the same and you can import your risks from your existing alm file as risks are linked using the task unique ID in Microsoft Project and these do not change even if you delete or add new tasks.
To import the risks, in RiskProject choose File (icon in the top left) > Import > Risks From Another Project. Browse to the original *.alm file and click OK to import the risks.
For more information please visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1175
Wednesday 11 November 2015
How do I sort out residual risk from uncertainties
November 9, 2015
Q: How do I sort out residual risk from uncertainties
We have created a mitigated baseline that contains both residual risk and uncertainty. As part of your process, we would like to separate out the impacts of the residual risks and the uncertainties from the monte carlo risk analysis. Is there a quick way to do this. We were thinking of creating to baselines one with the risks and one with only uncertainties, but would prefer not to.
A: The easiest way is just to disable all the risks. First step is to run a monte carlo simulation. Save the analysis. Then you can disable all the risks. This is done in the Risks Tab, Export/Import > Enable/Disable Risks.
Run one more simulation and record the results. This results of this analysis in the impact of uncertainty on your project. The differences between the 1st and 2nd simulation is the impact of the residual risk on your project.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1174
Q: How do I sort out residual risk from uncertainties
We have created a mitigated baseline that contains both residual risk and uncertainty. As part of your process, we would like to separate out the impacts of the residual risks and the uncertainties from the monte carlo risk analysis. Is there a quick way to do this. We were thinking of creating to baselines one with the risks and one with only uncertainties, but would prefer not to.
A: The easiest way is just to disable all the risks. First step is to run a monte carlo simulation. Save the analysis. Then you can disable all the risks. This is done in the Risks Tab, Export/Import > Enable/Disable Risks.
Run one more simulation and record the results. This results of this analysis in the impact of uncertainty on your project. The differences between the 1st and 2nd simulation is the impact of the residual risk on your project.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1174
Is there any high level register summary
November 9, 2015
Q: Is there any high level register summary
Is there a quick way to see a summary of the risk register. Like how many risks, what is the cost of the risks etc.
A: Yes. #RiskyProject comes with a Risk Register dashboard. It is found in the main Risk Register view. To view it you must click the Statistics button. The Statistics dashboard provides a high level overview of the status of the risk register, including number of risks, status of risks (open, closed, issues etc). Last updates and cost of risks.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1173
Q: Is there any high level register summary
Is there a quick way to see a summary of the risk register. Like how many risks, what is the cost of the risks etc.
A: Yes. #RiskyProject comes with a Risk Register dashboard. It is found in the main Risk Register view. To view it you must click the Statistics button. The Statistics dashboard provides a high level overview of the status of the risk register, including number of risks, status of risks (open, closed, issues etc). Last updates and cost of risks.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1173
Sunday 8 November 2015
Monte Carlo simulation performance
November 3, 2015
Q: Monte Carlo simulation performance
As part of our project reporting, we have to provide schedule risk analysis on a monthly basis. Currently, the master schedule is over 10000 tasks and is resource loaded. We use the MS Project addin to export the xml to RiskyProject and the size of file now is over GB and is maxing out the computers memory etc. Do you have any tips to speed up the process. We can’t modify the file, so that is out of the question.
A: If the Addin is still exporting an xml file from MS Project, you must still be on version 5. In the latest version 6.x, we have replaced the xml format with a proprietary data file which allows us to automatically eliminate around 90% of the data transferred as it is not required for the schedule or cost risk analysis . In addition, users can customize the data transfer as well, by eliminating unneeded project data such as Notes, Custom Fields, Deadlines, and Cost (if you are only running schedule risk analysis.
(picture)
By eliminating extraneous data from the analysis, with the current version we have been able to improve the time required to export data and run a simulation from 10 to 30 times. This is a significant improvement and it means that analysis that used to take an hour can be done in minutes and what took minutes now only takes seconds.
See our news release at: http://www.intaver.com/riskyproject_version61.html
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1170
Q: Monte Carlo simulation performance
As part of our project reporting, we have to provide schedule risk analysis on a monthly basis. Currently, the master schedule is over 10000 tasks and is resource loaded. We use the MS Project addin to export the xml to RiskyProject and the size of file now is over GB and is maxing out the computers memory etc. Do you have any tips to speed up the process. We can’t modify the file, so that is out of the question.
A: If the Addin is still exporting an xml file from MS Project, you must still be on version 5. In the latest version 6.x, we have replaced the xml format with a proprietary data file which allows us to automatically eliminate around 90% of the data transferred as it is not required for the schedule or cost risk analysis . In addition, users can customize the data transfer as well, by eliminating unneeded project data such as Notes, Custom Fields, Deadlines, and Cost (if you are only running schedule risk analysis.
(picture)
By eliminating extraneous data from the analysis, with the current version we have been able to improve the time required to export data and run a simulation from 10 to 30 times. This is a significant improvement and it means that analysis that used to take an hour can be done in minutes and what took minutes now only takes seconds.
See our news release at: http://www.intaver.com/riskyproject_version61.html
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1170
Default values for low and high durat
November 3, 2015
Q: Default values for low and high durat
We have a very large schedule and for first run schedule risk #analysis I would like it if I could automatically apply low and high duration estimates based on factors.
A: If you are importing a file, the only way to batch apply factors to calculate low and high durations estimates is to select all of the tasks in the project <Ctrl+F> , Select All and then right click on the Task ID column (on the far left) and choose Set Low/High Duration. You then add the factors in the Multiply on coefficient group, in the respective text boxes for Low and High durations.
Alternatively, if you are creating a project in RiskyProject, you can automatically calculate the low and high estimate for new tasks. To do this, go to Schedule > Settings and Options > Project Options > Duration. Select the Multiply on coefficient option and enter in the appropriate values for Low and High durations.
Click the Set as Default if you would like to set this as your preference for all projects.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1171
Q: Default values for low and high durat
We have a very large schedule and for first run schedule risk #analysis I would like it if I could automatically apply low and high duration estimates based on factors.
A: If you are importing a file, the only way to batch apply factors to calculate low and high durations estimates is to select all of the tasks in the project <Ctrl+F> , Select All and then right click on the Task ID column (on the far left) and choose Set Low/High Duration. You then add the factors in the Multiply on coefficient group, in the respective text boxes for Low and High durations.
Alternatively, if you are creating a project in RiskyProject, you can automatically calculate the low and high estimate for new tasks. To do this, go to Schedule > Settings and Options > Project Options > Duration. Select the Multiply on coefficient option and enter in the appropriate values for Low and High durations.
Click the Set as Default if you would like to set this as your preference for all projects.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1171
Risk Chart question
November 3, 2015
Q: Risk Chart question
One of our divisions started using #RiskyProject and it seems to provide all the standard monte carlo analysis reports. You also have a risk chart view, it looks interesting but we are not quite sure how we can use it to communicate the results to management.
A: The Risk chart as shown at the project level provides a visual depiction of the amount of relative cost and schedule risk that each activity has. It is not designed to tell you why the tasks have the amount of relative risk, but rather these are the activities that you should be flagged for additional scrutiny.
The risk chart has the base cost or duration values on the y axis and the risk on the x axis. The risk is displayed in measures such as standard deviation ranges etc, which can be selected at the bottom of the charts. The charts follow a familiar traffic light color coding to indicate relative levels of risk for each task. In the example below, on the left we can see the Cost risk view and the Duration risk view on the right. Task 19 and 13 are lying out the right and indicate that they have more relative risk. From the comparison of the two, it appears that most of what is driving this is schedule risk. We might also infer that the schedule risk is probably driving cost risk as well due to time dependent resources assigned to these tasks.
Does this tell you how to manage these tasks. Not in isolation, but in conjunction with the sensitivity analysis, crucial task analysis (to see how often the tasks are critical) and risk ranking in the risk register, you should have a better understanding of how to manage these tasks and reduce the impact they may on your project objectives.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1172
Q: Risk Chart question
One of our divisions started using #RiskyProject and it seems to provide all the standard monte carlo analysis reports. You also have a risk chart view, it looks interesting but we are not quite sure how we can use it to communicate the results to management.
A: The Risk chart as shown at the project level provides a visual depiction of the amount of relative cost and schedule risk that each activity has. It is not designed to tell you why the tasks have the amount of relative risk, but rather these are the activities that you should be flagged for additional scrutiny.
The risk chart has the base cost or duration values on the y axis and the risk on the x axis. The risk is displayed in measures such as standard deviation ranges etc, which can be selected at the bottom of the charts. The charts follow a familiar traffic light color coding to indicate relative levels of risk for each task. In the example below, on the left we can see the Cost risk view and the Duration risk view on the right. Task 19 and 13 are lying out the right and indicate that they have more relative risk. From the comparison of the two, it appears that most of what is driving this is schedule risk. We might also infer that the schedule risk is probably driving cost risk as well due to time dependent resources assigned to these tasks.
Does this tell you how to manage these tasks. Not in isolation, but in conjunction with the sensitivity analysis, crucial task analysis (to see how often the tasks are critical) and risk ranking in the risk register, you should have a better understanding of how to manage these tasks and reduce the impact they may on your project objectives.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1172
Wednesday 4 November 2015
Does it matter if you manually or Autoschedule
October 29, 2015
Q: Does it matter if you manually or Autoschedule
Does it affect the results of your Monte Carlo simulations if you manually or autoschedule tasks in Microsoft Project ?
A: Manually scheduled tasks may affect the schedule risk analysis. When you import manually scheduled tasks from Microsoft Project, they become constrained. It occurs if you use RiskyProject addin in Microsoft Project or if you use export data to XML file in Microsoft Project and import this XML file in #RiskyProject. The constraint may be for example "Must Start On" for the manually scheduled task in Microsoft Project.
The Monte Carlo simulations take into account the predecessor network (links between the activities) and constrained tasks will not move if for example duration of the predecessor increased. If you want to check which option you have on, it is shown on the bottom left of the MS Project task bar.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1168
Q: Does it matter if you manually or Autoschedule
Does it affect the results of your Monte Carlo simulations if you manually or autoschedule tasks in Microsoft Project ?
A: Manually scheduled tasks may affect the schedule risk analysis. When you import manually scheduled tasks from Microsoft Project, they become constrained. It occurs if you use RiskyProject addin in Microsoft Project or if you use export data to XML file in Microsoft Project and import this XML file in #RiskyProject. The constraint may be for example "Must Start On" for the manually scheduled task in Microsoft Project.
The Monte Carlo simulations take into account the predecessor network (links between the activities) and constrained tasks will not move if for example duration of the predecessor increased. If you want to check which option you have on, it is shown on the bottom left of the MS Project task bar.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1168
How do can I highlight bars in the Result Gant
October 29, 2015
Q: How do can I highlight bars in the Result Gant
I would like to use a similar color coding that you have in other views to highlight the low, base, and high. For example, have the low results bar as green, the base as Yellow and, High Results red.
A: I think that is a very interesting method to highlight the different results. One thing to note is that in other views we use the green, yellow and red to indicate levels of risks. In the result Gantt the low or high results are not indicative of low or high risk, but low or high certainties of meeting specific dates. For example, if you ran a Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis on a 5 day task with low and high durations of 4.5 and 5.5 days, there would be very little variance and the green, yellow, red type coloring could be misleading if it was interpreted as low and high risk.
If you do want to try this, you can modify the Gantt bars in any of the views using the Schedule >Settings and Options > Format Gantt Bar. You can choose shapes, colors and outlines for any of the Gantt Chart bars including the Low and High results.
In the example below, the high results have been modified to show as red. Please note, you can not show the Low and High results as individual bars at the same time.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1169
Q: How do can I highlight bars in the Result Gant
I would like to use a similar color coding that you have in other views to highlight the low, base, and high. For example, have the low results bar as green, the base as Yellow and, High Results red.
A: I think that is a very interesting method to highlight the different results. One thing to note is that in other views we use the green, yellow and red to indicate levels of risks. In the result Gantt the low or high results are not indicative of low or high risk, but low or high certainties of meeting specific dates. For example, if you ran a Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis on a 5 day task with low and high durations of 4.5 and 5.5 days, there would be very little variance and the green, yellow, red type coloring could be misleading if it was interpreted as low and high risk.
If you do want to try this, you can modify the Gantt bars in any of the views using the Schedule >Settings and Options > Format Gantt Bar. You can choose shapes, colors and outlines for any of the Gantt Chart bars including the Low and High results.
In the example below, the high results have been modified to show as red. Please note, you can not show the Low and High results as individual bars at the same time.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1169
Tuesday 3 November 2015
Setting defaults for optimistic and pessimistic duration
October 29, 2015
Q: Setting defaults for optimistic and pessimistic duration
I am still trying to figure out how to set the default optimistic and pessimistic duration values.
A: If you would like to automatically add low and high default estimates, you can do this in the Project Options Duration tab. In the Calculation of low and high durations and work. There are two different options, to calculate the estimates based on the relative duration of tasks, select the "Multiply on coefficient" option.
A good starting point is to enter a small variance such as .95 and 1.15 to model schedule quality. You can then run a first simulation. At which point, you can review with Project team and stakeholders, to modify tasks that are critical or near critical.
The other method is to use reference classes and is the preferred method in larger more technical projects http://herdingcats.typepad.com/my_weblog/2015/02/sources-for-reference-class-forecasting.html. If you are interested, this blog is an invaluable source of information in regards to project risk.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1166
Q: Setting defaults for optimistic and pessimistic duration
I am still trying to figure out how to set the default optimistic and pessimistic duration values.
A: If you would like to automatically add low and high default estimates, you can do this in the Project Options Duration tab. In the Calculation of low and high durations and work. There are two different options, to calculate the estimates based on the relative duration of tasks, select the "Multiply on coefficient" option.
A good starting point is to enter a small variance such as .95 and 1.15 to model schedule quality. You can then run a first simulation. At which point, you can review with Project team and stakeholders, to modify tasks that are critical or near critical.
The other method is to use reference classes and is the preferred method in larger more technical projects http://herdingcats.typepad.com/my_weblog/2015/02/sources-for-reference-class-forecasting.html. If you are interested, this blog is an invaluable source of information in regards to project risk.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1166
Are hidden columns included when you import data from MS Pro
October 25, 2015
Q: Are hidden columns included when you import data from MS Pro
We are going to be using the Addin to move our MS Project data to RiskyProject for cost and schedule risks analysis. If we have hidden columns, is that data included in the export?
A: When you import data into RiskyProject from Microsoft Project via the RiskyProject Addin in Microsoft Project or using XML export/import, by default all of the project data is included. This includes if you hide columns, or have filtered views. This do not impact what data is included in the files.
However, I f you are using the Addin, you can select to exclude specific data types . By limiting the amount of data you can improved the performance of the simulations in MS Project (using the Addin) or importing it in to RiskyProject. On large schedules this can have a significant impact on the time and computer resources required to run the Monte Carlo simulations.
You can exclude this data using the Field Mappings dialog box. In the example below, Custom Fields, Deadlines, and Notes will not be imported into #RiskyProject.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1167
Q: Are hidden columns included when you import data from MS Pro
We are going to be using the Addin to move our MS Project data to RiskyProject for cost and schedule risks analysis. If we have hidden columns, is that data included in the export?
A: When you import data into RiskyProject from Microsoft Project via the RiskyProject Addin in Microsoft Project or using XML export/import, by default all of the project data is included. This includes if you hide columns, or have filtered views. This do not impact what data is included in the files.
However, I f you are using the Addin, you can select to exclude specific data types . By limiting the amount of data you can improved the performance of the simulations in MS Project (using the Addin) or importing it in to RiskyProject. On large schedules this can have a significant impact on the time and computer resources required to run the Monte Carlo simulations.
You can exclude this data using the Field Mappings dialog box. In the example below, Custom Fields, Deadlines, and Notes will not be imported into #RiskyProject.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1167
Monday 2 November 2015
Intaver Institute and SNA-Software Integrated Solution
October 29, 2015
Intaver Institute and SNA-Software Integrated Solution
#Intaver Institute Inc. and Safran North America LLC today announced that they have developed seamless integration between SNA’s flagship EVM solution Proteus Envision and Intaver’s project risk analysis and project risk management software #RiskyProject.The Proteus-RiskyProject integration allows SNA to provide a complete and seamless Earned Value and Risk Management solution to its clients. Users will be able run a comprehensive Cost and Schedule risk analysis using their UN/CEFACT project data. This solution will provide comprehensive support for program management guidelines recently released by PARCA.
For more information please read our press release.
http://www.intaver.com/downloads/IntaverPressReleaseOct29_2015.pdf
Sunday 1 November 2015
Mean vs P50 in schedule risk analysis
October 25, 2015
Q: Mean vs P50 in schedule #riskanalysis
We have been asked to rebaseline our project based on the P50 results of the analysis. This has been taken by some of our project team members to indicate the Mean or average of the results. I think I remember reading that this is not the case in schedules because of the shape of the histogram.
A: It is a common misunderstanding that the P50 is a synonym for the Mean or Average. If the probability distribution for activities were symmetrical, this this would be the case, where the Mode, Mean and P50 all would be the same. It might be better to provide the alternative name to P50 which is the Median.
In the case of schedules, the distribution almost always tend to be right skewed as there is a finite amount that it can shorten, but an infinite amount that it could extend (possibly never be finished). Because of this right skewedness, the Mode (most likely), P50, and the Mean begin to diverge.
Lets take a look at the below graph. If we look at the left, we can see that the Mean is ~ 11 days, and the P50 is 10.8. The most likely is even farther to the left somewhere around 10 days.
Therefore, generally the Mean is a slightly higher level of confidence (finish at or before) than the P50. In the case below, the Mean represents about P55.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1164
Can I modify the page setup for Gantt Chart
October 25, 2015
Q: Can I modify the page setup for Gantt Chart
Hi, we would like to print out the Result Gantt analysis from the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis onto a plotter. If I go to the Page Setup it only shows Portrait or Landscape and doesn’t really allow us to format for other sizes of outputs.I find that being able to post the comparison of our current baseline vs the Mean for each task is a great way to start status meeting.
A: The Result Gantt can be a very useful visual to promote discussion during status meetings. The actual printed output defaults to the system’s default printer. This printer is shown in the File > Print > Page Setup.
You can set the default printer in the Windows Control panel. You will need to select your Plotter as the default printer if you want to do a Print Preview. If not you can select the Plotter as the target printer when you go to the Print dialog. In this case, I would recommend doing a small test, to ensure that the page setup transfers to the larger output.
For more information please visit www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1165
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