Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis with Actuals

August 29, 2015 Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis with Actuals The Monte Carlo analysis is always performed with taking in to account actuals. Here is how it works: * If task is fully completed, risks and uncertainties are not applied to the tasks * If task is partially completed, the risks are applied only to remaining duration. For example, if 50% of task is completed and original risk probability is 60%, effective risk probability will be 30%. * If task has a statistical distribution for duration, it will be applied automatically to the remaining duration. For example, if task originally supposes to be completed in 10 days, but after 2 days only 10% is done, new total task duration will be 20 days. Remaining duration will be 18 days. If you defined low and high duration as 90% and 120% of original duration, the same coefficients will be applied to the remaining duration. So low remaining duration will be 18 days * 0.9 = 16.2 days and high duration will be 18 days * 1.2 = 21.6 days. You may always define statistical distribution for remaining duration manually, as it is shown below. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1086