How are risks scored at the Program level

September 16, 2015 Q: How are risks scored at the Program level We are using RiskyProject Enterprise. Could you please tell me, how are risks scored at the Program level? A: RiskyProject is consistent in the way that it calculates risk at both the project or program level. Risks that appear in a Program (Summary Project) risk register are there because either they have been assigned to one or more projects in the program or are being managed at the program level. If a risk is being calculated at only the project or program level, the risks scores calculations are fairly simple: impact x probability. For qualitative analysis, this is very straight forward. For quantitative cost and schedule Monte Carlo analysis, the impact is a calculated value and can be affected by how the risk is assigned to project tasks, the complexity of the schedule and other factors. Impact is calculated by measuring how the risk correlates with project cost and schedule values for each iteration. This correlation is then adjusted (normalized) as then final score generated. At the program level, risk scores depend on the level that the risk is being managed at. If the risk is being managed on a project by project basis, then the risk score takes into account the likelihood that the risk could occur on either of the projects. If the risk is being managed at the program level, then the risk score is calculated qualitatively and only uses the chance and probability as inputs. For more information please visit: www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1124

Changing risk register at the same time

September 14, 2015 Q: Changing risk register at the same time We are using RiskyProject Enterprise for portfolio risk analysis. We have 20 people using software at the same time. My question is what happen if few people update risk register at the same time. Do they overwrite each other's changes? Do you have a mechanism to prevent it? A: RiskyProject has a system of locks, which prevents multiple user from editing any data a the same time. It includes not only Risk Register, but also project schedules, mitigation and response plans, and other portfolio settings. For example, if one user opens project schedule and starts editing this, nobody else can open this schedule at the same time. The project schedule will be locked. The schedule will be automatically unlocked after one day. However administrator can unlock project schedule any time. It may be required if somebody open project schedule or risk and forgot to close it. In this case nobody else can edit the schedule of the risk until administrator unlocks it or one day expires. Only one user can perform Monte Carlo simulations of one schedule, however many users can perform Monte Carlo simulations of different schedules at the same time. The user cannot make any changes to risk register or the project hierarchy, if somebody else updated it and current user does not have most recent version. The user will be presented with the message "Please refresh Risk Register (or project hierarchy)". The changes can be made only to the most recent version of the hierarchy. The same process works for the list of mitigation and response plans. For more information please visit: www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1123

User Permissions in RiskyProject

September 10, 2015 Q: User Permissions in RiskyProject We are planning to use RiskyProject Enterprise and are planning eventually have 3-4 divisions using the system on the same database. Is there a process to restrict user’s access to specific projects? Some of the results of the monte carlo simulations are not considered appropriate for members of other teams etc. A: Yes, RiskyProject Enterprise comes with a User Administration Console. The User Administration Console can set up permissions for any user to any part of the project hierarchy. The idea is that each user may have an access to the specific projects and cannot see information (risks) assigned to other projects. To do this, click the File icon (on the top left corner of the screen), and choose Users. Then click the Project Permissions tab and select a hierarchy node in the left pane. All users are listed in the right pane. You can allow or deny user access to the node you selected by clicking the check box beside the user name. For more information please visit: www.intaver.com http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1121

Risk assumptions vs. risk objectives

September 28, 2015 Q: Risk assumptions vs. risk objectives Do you have any specific rules how to define textual risk properties, such as risk assumptions and risk objectives? A: There are not specific rules how you define risk assumptions, objective, description, and other textual information in RiskyProject. However we recommend our clients to establish some rules in organization, what information correspond with these fields in risk form: (see picture) For example, for objectives some organization define overall name of mitigation efforts, associated with the risk. In general mitigation plan associated with the risk has a multiple steps. Objective may be a general description, what needs to be achieved, by mitigating this risk. Assumptions can be, for example, conditions for the risk to occur. For more information please visit: www.intaver.com

Filtering Risks

September 28, 2015 Q: Filtering Risks Is it possible to see risks belonging to one category for entire portfolio in RiskyProject Enterprise? A: In RiskyProject Enterprise if you don't open any particular project, you will see a risk register for entire portfolio. If you open particular project schedule by double clicking on it, you will see a green bar in right upper corner corner indicating the name of the project. In this case if you go to risk register view, you will see a risk register for the opened project. At the center of risk register view you will find a drop down list called "Hierarchy based on": (see picture) This box allows you to filter risk register based on category or select all risks for specific category only. If you select "Categories", you will see the hierarchy based on category name. But you can select only one specific category, for example Duration. In this case you will be presented with the list of risks for this specific category. Please note that one risk may affect multiple categories. For more information please visit: www.intaver.com

Project duration is shorter than expected

September 25, 2015 Q: Project duration is shorter than expected We have assigned risks to the project schedule and the Low result we get seems unreasonably short. Do you know of any reasons for this? A: Often when we do unexpected results, we do recommend a reality check. It could be the results of an error in the schedule logic or in the risk assignments. If the schedule logic is sound, then most likely if you are model impacts using statistical distributions, the low or optimistic values for the ranges are too optimistic and the combination of risks impacts is giving you the result you are seeing. In addition, if you are using the risk outcome End Task, Cancel Task, or Cancel Task and all successors this can have an unexpectedly dramatic impact on the project duration, such that it ends early, but not successfully. For more information please visit: www.intaver.com

Two New Intaver Institute's Videos

September 22, 2015 Two New Intaver Institute's Videos Intaver Institute published two new videos. They both focus to theoretical aspects of schedule risk analysis using Monte Carlo: - Schedule risk analysis with RiskyProject: How many Monte Carlo iterations are required? - Schedule risk analysis with RiskyProject: What statistical distribution should you use? Please click here to watch the video or visit our YouTube channel. August 26, 2015 http://www.intaver.com/index-news.html

Monte Carlo Simulation Convergence

September 14, 2015 Q: Monte Carlo Simulation Convergence I defines maximum number of simulations 2000, however simulations stop before it. I believe it is because of convergence. How does it work? How can I correctly define convergence criteria? Do you calculate convergence based on cost? A: Convergence monitoring allows to stop Monte Carlo simulations when additional iterations don't contribute to improve accuracy of analysis. Please remember that in most cases we don't define uncertainties very accurately. For example, task duration can be between 5 and 7 days. However it is possible that task duration can be between 4.5 and 7.5 days. In many cases we don't have reliable historical data to definitely say that low duration will be 4.5 or 5 days. In other words we define uncertainties with 10% accuracy. Therefore it does not make sense to perform very accurate Monte Carlo simulations with accuracy 0.1%. Convergence parameters are defined in Project Options Dialog, Calculation tab (click on Schedule -> Project Options): To enable convergence you may just click on "Stop simulation when converged". If this box is not checked, number of Monte Carlo simulations will be exactly as shown above this check box (Maximum number of simulations). Default Monte Carlo convergence parameters are usually applicable to most schedules, so you don't need to change anything. RiskyProject calculates mean and standard deviation of project duration on each iteration. The different between mean (and standard deviation) calculated on current and previous iteration should be no greater than certain number. The default value is 0.15%. This criteria should be met on certain number of iterations. The default value is 20 iterations. If within 20 iterations between mean (and standard deviation) calculated on current and previous iteration is greater than 0.15%, RiskyProject would check this criteria over next 20 iterations. RiskyProject tests convergence criteria only for duration, not for cost. "See intaver's forum for more details". http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1122

Relative vs. fixed (absolute) delays for project risks

September 2, 2015 Q: Relative vs. fixed (absolute) delays for project risks When you are adding risks, their is a choice between fixed (absolute) durations in days or relative delays. When should you use fixed rather than relative outcomes? MTC465 Posts: 3Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:57 amLocation: USA A: When you perform quantitative project risk analysis in RiskyProject, you need to define risks with their outcomes or how the risk will affect particular task or resource. Risks belonging to different risk categories will have different outcomes. Risk affecting task duration may cause fixed delay (certain number of days), relative delay (for example task may be delayed on 10%), task restart, and task cancelation. You may also enter combination of these outcomes, as it shown on the screen shot below. They are called alternatives. Particular type of outcome depends on your schedule and data you have available. For example, you know that the risk “component is delayed on customs” is a fixed delay, because it takes fixed number of days to clear the customs. However risk “delay caused by contractor” is a relative delay because it depends on duration of original work: contractor just works slow on underestimated duration of the task. In certain cases, for example due to changing of requirements, the task must be started again. In this case the outcome should be “restart task”. Please note that RiskyProject also have fixed and relative increase of cost and income. Also if you include negative values to duration, cost, and income increase, it will be opportunity, not a threat. If some risk alternatives have positive outcome and some negative, the risk will have both threat and opportunity. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1102

Uncertainty to non-critical tasks for portfolio analysis

September 9, 2015 Q: Uncertainty to non-critical tasks for portfolio analysis Do I need to add uncertainty to non-critical tasks? Typically we need to run Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis on large projects. In the past, for simplicity, we have only assigned uncertainties to activities on the critical path. I saw a presentation recently that advised that we need to assign uncertainties to all tasks. Is the correct and what are the implications to our analysis if we don’t. A: Short answer is yes, best practice is to add uncertainty to all your project activities when performing Monte Carlo simulations. In reality this could be further refined by add “that can vary in duration” to this advice. Obviously deadlines fall into this category, but there are also some routine activities of very short length (~ 1 day) that can be safely ignored. However on deterministic schedules only a relatively few activities will be critical. If you do not add uncertainty to the other tasks, the Monte Carlo schedule analysis will not capture the impact of near critical activities, merge bias, and the portfolio effect. In probabilistic project analysis, there can be multiple critical paths where near critical activities can become critical. The Crucial task view is a visual representation of how often activities will land on the critical path. In addition, if you only add uncertainty to critical activities, this may cause errors in the sensitivity analysis. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1116

Probabilistic Cash Flow of Project Portfolio

September 4, 2015 Q: Probabilistic Cash Flow of Project Portfolio Can I present a probabilistic cash flow chart as a result of Monte Carlo simulations not for individual projects, but for complete project portfolio? A: Probabilistic cash flow chart is generated for individual project only. Cash flow analysis is performed as part of project's Monte Carlo simulation. The issue is uncertainties in each project can be defined differently and it can lead to incorrect results, when we summarize them for project portfolio. However we are currently working on new version of the software, which will define common uncertainty "bands" for project portfolio. If these "bands" are shared for all project within a portfolio, it is possible to define standardized set of uncertainties for project portfolio. Just to remind you, RiskyProject performs Monte Carlo simulation of project schedule and generate statistical distribution of fixed and variable costs on each time interval. In can be done weekly, monthly, by-monthly, etc. The results of each project is presented in form of chart: Dark blue color of each bar present low estimate of post for the given period of time, lighter color will present base cost, and very light color will present low cost. You can also be presented with cash flow of current schedule (red line). It is planned (original) cash flow. Actual cash flow can be shown as a green line, if the project has actuals. You can click on each chart to see detailed statistical distribution for cost of each time interval. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1106

Switch from project to portfolio risk analysis

September 1, 2015 Q: Switch from project to portfolio risk analysis I use RiskyProject professional for project risk analysis. I would like to do portfolio risk analysis using RiskyProject Enterprise. How can I switch from project to portfolio risk analysis? A: RiskyProject Lite and RiskyProject Professional perform analysis of single project only. If you want to preform risk analysis based on shared list of risks for your organization, you would need to use RiskyProject Enterprise. RiskyProject Enterprise you two components: server and client. The server component is a database which needs to be installed on the server. The client component is essentially RiskyProject Professional or RiskyProject Lite, which can be installed on client computer. The client component needs to be configured to talk with the database on the server. If you already have RiskyProject Professional you need to install server component and configure RiskyProject Professional connection to the database. All instructions how to install server component can be found in RiskyProject Administrator’s guide, which comes with RiskyProject install package. Server database is using Microsoft SQL Server or SQL Server Express version 2005 and up. When you install RiskyProject server database you need to go Tools->Update RiskyProject License. The License Wizard dialog will come up. There are three possible configurations of RiskyProject: Trial License, Regular Desktop license, and Enterprise client. You current configuration will be grayed out. You select different configuration: in your case it will be Enterprise client. After this you need to close RiskyProject Professional. When you start RiskyProject again you need to configure connection to the database as it is described in RiskyProject Administrator’s guide. After you configure connection between RiskyProject Professional and server database you may perform Monte Carlo Schedule and Cost risk analysis for all particular projects within a portfolio. Risks and results of Monte Carlo simulations will be saved in the database and shared between different users on your organization. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1101

How do I show Project Summary in the Statistics Report?

September 4, 2015 Q: How do I show Project Summary in the Statistics Report? I s there any way to have or show the project results as shown in the Project Summary in the Statistics Report? Project results should include results of Monte Carlo simulations: statistical summary, histograms and percentiles for project duration, cost, start time, finish time, etc. A: The Statistics Report is designed to show the results of your Monte Carlo simulations for any activities in your project, including summary activities. Using the Statistics Report you can show Histograms, Cumulative Probability Plots for Cost, Finish Time, Duration, and Start Time. You can also see Sensitivity or Tornado charts for Finish Times (that is which activities in the precedent network have the most potential to impact the finish time of the task). The Statistics Report does not support either analysis of Work and the Cost vs Duration Scatter Plot (Joint Confidence). To use the Statistics Report to generate the charts for the Project requires that you insert a Summary Activity at Level One of the highest level of the schedule. This can be part of your project schedule or can be inserted specifically for reporting purposes. Once this Project Summary activity is inserted the summary results for your Monte Carlo risk analysis will be available in the Statistics Report. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1105

Status of Monte Carlo simulation

September 6, 2015 Q: Status of Monte Carlo simulation When I click the Calculate button to run the Monte Carlo simulation, I no longer see a status as in previous versions. Just downloaded version 6.1 to check out the new features. RiskyProject seems to be calculating, as I can see results in the Analysis view, but there is no progress bar. Expert Posts: 3Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:11 pm A: With version 6 and then with version 6.1, there have been significant increases in the speed of Monte Carlo simulation calculations. Especially with version 6.1 where we have added multiprocessing if you have a relatively new computer, depending upon the project data (number of tasks, resources, costs, risks etc.) time to run the project schedule and cost risk analysis has been reduced from 10-30 times. In the cases of smaller project (<1000 activities) with no or small numbers of resources and risks the simulation occurs so quickly now that the progress bar does not appear. This is currently an undocumented feature dubbed “Instant Monte Carlo”. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1109

Why is there a difference in my risk assignment view

September 9, 2015 Q: Why is there a difference in my risk assignment view We have several projects in planning and we noticed that in on project, the risk assignment had only one Outcome, but in another it has Low, Outcome, and High fields. What is going on? A: RiskyProject has a very flexible risk assessment capability and one of these is the ability to either assign single outcomes or outcomes as a distribution (low, base, high with a statistical distribution). The latter is generally considered a more advance feature and you can use it when you want to analyse a range of possible impacts on a risk. For example if a risk occurs, you think it could impact your costs, but it could be anywhere from 5 to 20% of your activity budget. In this case, you could use the model this using these ranges along with a distribution type (uniform, triangular, etc.). To enable the statistical distributions for risk outcomes, go to the Project Options> Risks. Click the Enable Statistical distributions for risk outcomes. Likewise, you can disable this view in the same dialog. If you plan to assign outcomes with both single or distributions in your projects, we recommend that you set the default with the statistical distributions for risk outcomes enabled. In the cases where you do not want to have a distribution, you can enter the same value in the Low and High outcomes to get the same result. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1117

BetaPert statistical distribution for Monte Carlo

September 4, 2015 Q: BetaPert statistical distribution for Monte Carlo We have been looking at alternatives to triangular distributions for modeling uncertainty in our tasks. One of the alternatives that has been mentioned is BetaPert. In what cases should it be used as opposed to triangular? A: Both BetaPert and Triangular both require 3 pt estimates for Low, Base, and High. BetaPert is a variation of the original Pert distribution that was developed in the early 1950s to provide probability distributions for project management purposes. BetaPert is generally used as an alternative to Triangular Distribution in cases where the estimators believe that there is less possibility that an activity will have a duration that occurs at the boundaries. In practical terms, PetaPert generates a distribution with lower standard deviation and that is shown by a more probability density around the calculated mean. Lets take a look at a simple example and compare the Triangular and BetaPert distributions with a 3 pt estimate of 3,5, and 8 days. What does this mean? BetaPert is less sensitive to the boundary estimates (in this case 3 and 8 days) and returns probabilities that closer to the original most likely estimate. In very simple terms, if you have that that suggests the low and high estimates have a very unlikely probability of occurring, BetaPert may be a better alternative than Triangular. A point of interest. Some recent studies that we have seen seems to indicate that while BetaPert is appropriate in specific cases, the boundaries estimates are generally two narrow. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1107

Number of Monte Carlo simulations

September 6, 2015 Q: Number of Monte Carlo simulations We are just starting our project risk analysis process and would like to set some standards for the number of iterations. Are there any guidelines for this? A: First, you can set the number of iterations for the Monte Carlo simulations in the Project Options>Calculations. There are really no standards for the number of iterations to set, but here are a couple rules of thumb. If you require quick estimates and are looking for results closer to the mean such as standard deviation, you can use the convergence settings as found in the Monte Carlo parameters options. When convergence is on, RiskyProject monitors the simulation and it will stop the iterations when the mean and standard deviation are not changing significantly. If however, you have a more complex project with risks with low probabilities or are looking to measure the results at the boundaries, you will need to run more iterations for Monte Carlo simulations so that the analysis captures the impact of unlikely conditions or events. In this case, you may want to run up to 3000 iterations which is set using the Maximum number of simulations box. As the latest generation of software and hardware is much faster, this is less of a concern than it was even a couple of years ago. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1108

Cost accrual for risk analysis

September 8, 2015 Q: Cost accrual for risk analysis We have just started a new process and are doing some integrated cost and schedule risk analysis. Some of the results we were seeing for costs in the Cash flow view looked odd until we noticed that the cost allocation was set for the end of the activities. We had to manually go in and reset them all to Prorated which is our standard. Is there any way to set this as the default? A: In RiskyProject you can define when costs accrue in tasks. The costs can be associated with resource usage (prorated cost accrual). You can also place cost realization at the beginning or end of the task. This might be used for alignment when the costs are realized by billing systems and it can help you manage cash flow in your project. Cost accrual is very important for integrated schedule and cost risk analysis. For example, if risks related to the cost occurred at the middle of the task and cost accrual is prorated, the risk will affect only portion of the cost, accrued after the risk occured. RIskyProject has probabilistic moment of risk property of the task, which controls when risk occurs. The standard default settings for cost accrual is prorated, so I am not sure how this may occurred in your case. If you imported it from a third party tool, it may have overwritten the defaults. Regardless, you can set the default accrual methods for all of your projects in the Project Options -> Cost. The accrual method is set using the Default Fixed Cost/Income Accrual drop-down lists. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1111

Q: Risk properties and risk analysis

September 9, 2015 Q: Risk properties and risk analysis Does the Start and End dates in the Risk Properties view impact the risk analysis? Particularly, in the Risk Properties view, does the risk Start and End Dates affect the results of the Monte Carlo risk analysis? A: Quick answer is no, the Start and End dates of the risk (sometimes referred to as sunrise and sunset) are part of the meta data used as part of the risk management process, but is not used as a input parameter in the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis. Risk does have a time dimension in addition to probability and impacts; however, when you assign risks to activities or resources, this time dimension of the risk is automatically accounted for by the time phased aspect of the tasks within the project schedule and resources assigned to them. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1114

What is the best distribution to use for schedule duration?

August 31, 2015 Q: What is the best distribution to use for schedule duration? When you add low and high durations to an activity, what type of distribution is the best? thanks A: In reality, there is no “Best” distribution to use for schedule or cost risk analysis. The statistical distribution for any parameter (cost, duration etc) should be the one that best fits your data. If this data does exist for particular type of activities, then you can select the distribution which best fits your data or you can create a custom distribution. However, in reality, most of our users do not have this data available for the type of activity. In these cases, we suggest using Triangular statistical distribution as the default. Triangular distributions only require that you provide Best Case, Most Likely, and Worst Case values without requiring any additional parameters. In our experience, triangular distributions are used in 90% of schedule risk analysis and to a lesser degree in cost risk analysis (as the this data is more readily available.) http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1092

Statistical distribution for duration

September 4, 2015 Q: Statistical distribution for duration As part of our Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis, as a first draft we are not yet requiring our team members to provide estimates for low and high duration. We want to import our schedule from Microsoft Project and quickly add uncertainties to all of the activities. I seem to remember that you can do this in RiskyProject, but I can’t find it. A: In RiskyProject you can quickly add uncertainty to your tasks. Uncertainties are expressed as statistical distribution and will be based as an input in Monte Carlo simulation process. These statistical distributions will be used for task duration and task costs. We recommend as a first step develop levels of uncertainty each with coefficients used to calculate Low and High estimates. For example, you can If you have activities that are very routine and have very little uncertainty, they can be characterized as Very Low risk with coefficients for Low and High . 95 and 1.1 respectively. You can do this for all your activities in Microsoft Project and when you import it into RiskyProject, this will allow you to quickly select specific risk groups to apply the uncertainty. To apply the uncertainties to groups of activities. Select the tasks, right-click on the Task ID of one of the selected tasks and click Set Low High Duration from the shortcut menu. You can enter the coefficients you have defined as well as assign a statistical distribution type to the group. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1103

September 6, 2015 Q: Order of views in Monte Carlo Statistics Report The statistics report looks pretty useful feature for schedule risk analysis. We would prefer however to have sensitivity analysis shown before the other charts. And we would probably like fewer charts per task. A: You can change the order of views shown in Statistics Report with results of Monte Carlo simulations. This view shows results of Monte Carlo simulation of project schedules, including probability disruptions for task and project duration, start and finish time, cost, as well as results of sensitivity analysis presented as tornado diagrams. Not sure if you noticed, but there is a Customize Report button that is located at the bottom of the list of tasks on the left of the view. If you click it, the Format Statistics Report dialog box opens. The main options to set up the chart data are located in the middle of the dialog, the Charts and Data and Order of Data tables option groups. The first group allows to set up how the frequency and cumulative probability data is shown in the Report. Click a checkbox to enable that chart or data type. The only condition is that you can either combine the Monte Carlo frequency and probability plots into one chart or show them separately, you cannot have both. In the Order of Data Tables, this allows you to enable the charts for the different data types as well as, using the Move Up and Move Down button, create and set the default order of the charts. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1110

September 8, 2015 Q: Statistics report for project risk analysis I have runs a Monte Carlo risk analysis and have seen the results in the Analysis views. But when I open the Statistics Report, I cannot get it to show any results. A: The issue is most likely because you have not actually selected any tasks to view. Statistic report shows results of Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis for selected task and for whole project. In the Statistics Report, just clicking on a task does not select it. There are two methods that you can use to “select” tasks in the Statistics Report. The first is to click in the Display Statistics Report checkbox. By default it is located to the right of the task name. In this example, for identification I have added text D to the column description, though by default it is blank. You can add a identifier to the column by right-clicking on the column header and clicking Modify Column: Alternatively, to quickly select multiple tasks, add an identifier to each task you need to report on to a text field. For example, add the identifier “RPT” in the Text1 field. Go to Schedule > Zoom and Find > Find. Enter the search parameters and click Find. This will select all of the Report tasks in the Statistics Report View. You can now generate your Monte Carlo statistics reports. Tip. You can add the identifier in Microsoft Project or other tool as long as it is in Text1 to Text5 fields. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1112

Percentile Options for Monte Carlo Simulations

September 9, 2015 Q: Percentile Options for Monte Carlo Simulations How do the Calculation Options for Low, Base and High affect the Monte Carlo simulations? Do they affect how the low and high estimates (inputs) are interpreted? For example, the default setting appears to be P10 and P90. If I have a task with a 10 day most likely and add 8 for low and 15 for high. Does 8 days represent that the task could be completed in 8 days 10% of the time, but there is still a possibility it could be lower (e.g. 7 days?) A: No, the Monte Carlo calculation settings on control what values are shown in the risk analysis result views. In RiskyProject, in the risk analysis views you will see columns for Low, Mean, and High. The Calculation option is indicting what the P value from the Monte Carlo analysis represent for Low and High duration, costs, start time, finish time, etc. For example, if you would like to set schedule margins at P80 for duration, you can set this up in the Calculation Options so that the P value is displayed automatically for Project and task results.

Switch from project to portfolio risk analysis

September 1, 2015 Switch from project to portfolio risk analysis RiskyProject Lite and RiskyProject Professional perform analysis of single project only. If you want to preform risk analysis based on shared list of risks for your organization, you would need to use RiskyProject Enterprise. RiskyProject Enterprise you two components: server and client. The server component is a database which needs to be installed on the server. The client component is essentially RiskyProject Professional or RiskyProject Lite, which can be installed on client computer. The client component needs to be configured to talk with the database on the server. If you already have RiskyProject Professional you need to install server component and configure RiskyProject Professional connection to the database. All instructions how to install server component can be found in RiskyProject Administrator’s guide, which comes with RiskyProject install package. Server database is using Microsoft SQL Server or SQL Server Express version 2005 and up. When you install RiskyProject server database you need to go Tools->Update RiskyProject License. The License Wizard dialog will come up. There are three possible configurations of RiskyProject: Trial License, Regular Desktop license, and Enterprise client. You current configuration will be grayed out. You select different configuration: in your case it will be Enterprise client. After this you need to close RiskyProject Professional. When you start RiskyProject again you need to configure connection to the database as it is described in RiskyProject Administrator’s guide. After you configure connection between RiskyProject Professional and server database you may perform Monte Carlo Schedule and Cost risk analysis for all particular projects within a portfolio. Risks and results of Monte Carlo simulations will be saved in the database and shared between different users on your organization. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1101

What is the best distribution to use for schedule duration?

August 31, 2015 What is the best distribution to use for schedule duration? In reality, there is no “Best” distribution to use for schedule or cost risk analysis. The statistical distribution for any parameter (cost, duration etc) should be the one that best fits your data. If this data does exist for particular type of activities, then you can select the distribution which best fits your data or you can create a custom distribution. However, in reality, most of our users do not have this data available for the type of activity. In these cases, we suggest using Triangular statistical distribution as the default. Triangular distributions only require that you provide Best Case, Most Likely, and Worst Case values without requiring any additional parameters. In our experience, triangular distributions are used in 90% of schedule risk analysis and to a lesser degree in cost risk analysis (as the this data is more readily available.) http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1092

Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis with Actuals

August 29, 2015 Monte Carlo Schedule Risk Analysis with Actuals The Monte Carlo analysis is always performed with taking in to account actuals. Here is how it works: * If task is fully completed, risks and uncertainties are not applied to the tasks * If task is partially completed, the risks are applied only to remaining duration. For example, if 50% of task is completed and original risk probability is 60%, effective risk probability will be 30%. * If task has a statistical distribution for duration, it will be applied automatically to the remaining duration. For example, if task originally supposes to be completed in 10 days, but after 2 days only 10% is done, new total task duration will be 20 days. Remaining duration will be 18 days. If you defined low and high duration as 90% and 120% of original duration, the same coefficients will be applied to the remaining duration. So low remaining duration will be 18 days * 0.9 = 16.2 days and high duration will be 18 days * 1.2 = 21.6 days. You may always define statistical distribution for remaining duration manually, as it is shown below. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1086

Merge bias in Schedule Risks Analysis, or Portfolio Effect

August 29, 2015 Merge bias in Schedule Risks Analysis, or Portfolio Effect After importing or creating a schedue into RiskyProject, they input the information that they have gathered from a risk workshop. The steps are to this are usually straight forward: 1. Enter in the Risk name in the Risk Register. 2. Add additional metadata about the risk to the Risk Properties form. 3. Open the Drag N' Drop Risks view. 4. Select the tasks to which you want to assign a risk 5. Drag the risk onto the tasks and the Assign risks to tasks dialog box opens. Here you can quickly add the chance (probability) and outcomes (impacts). When you calculate the results, it appears that you have almost no chance of completing on the original budget or schedule. This is a very common. First, deterministic schedule rarely account for 'merge bias' or " portfolio effect'. These are two factors that that cannot be measured by critical path calculations and tend to expand the expected values for both schedule and budget (due to time dependent costs). Merge bias occurs when parallel (activities occurring at the same time) all share the same successor and the successor cannot start until all of the predecessors are complete. This is very common and if any of the activities is delayed, even if they are not on the original critical path, they can cause delays. In large projects, there tend to be many parallel activities and without Monte Carlo simulations we can not measure the possible implications. Second, the portfolio effect occurs when you have many activities with distributions linked in a predecessor network. In this case, project tasks tend to have right-skewed distributions because activities have only a limited amount in which you can decrease length, but theoretically at least, the activities of durations have no limit. In these circumstances, the causes the average values (p50) of the task's duration distribution to be to the right of the Most Likely (the peak). The combination of the precedent network and risk skewed distributions means that mathematically (and in reality) that the Most Likely value for the Project shifts towards the average value and in practical terms can significantly extend what you can realistically expect your schedule to be. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1087