Project risk score scale

December 23 2015

Q: Project risk score scale
I saw a risk scale on the project summary diagram. What does it mean and how it is calculated?

A: Project risk score scale is presented when you perform calculation in Microsoft Project. It is part of project summary dialog.
When you double click on project bar in RiskyProject Enterprise, the same dialog will come up. Project risk score is calculated separately for duration, cost, and other parameters. If there are no uncertainties in cost and other parameters, risk score fields will be empty. Project risk score is calculated based on empirical formula: project risk score equals 2 if all risks increase project duration or cost two times. If project risk score is less than 1, it is an opportunity or cancellation, so due to risk and uncertainties project will cost less or take less time. Also please remember that project can be cancelled. In this case it will also take less time and cost less.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1200

Probabilities outside of the distributions cut off

December 23, 2015

Q: Probabilities outside of the distributions cut off

Looks like the distribution in RiskyProject only considers the duration from Low to High (there is a kind of 'cut' at the beginning/end). Is that right? Because sometimes projects/tasks have so much delay that they will take longer than the highest duration.

A: For the distribution attached, only the probability distribution from Low to High is used in the simulation. Therefore significant delays, which would occur outside of these boundaries is not modeled. Normal and lognormal distributions are unbounded; therefore it is possible that they could go to infinity. So it could a chance that duration of the project will be very long which could be unrealistic. Therefore, with these distribution types we use a cut off. The solutions to this are:
- increase cut off by increasing the range and then playing with std. deviation parameter or selecting P1/P99
- use another statistical distribution, such as beta. It may also require increasing the ranges.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1199

How do I add the Risk Matrix to a report.

December 15, 2015

Q: How do I add the Risk Matrix to a report.

As part of our project risk reporting we would like to include the Risk Matrix, is there any way to add this to the Risk Register report for the project portfolio?

A: The risk register report only includes the risk matrix for specific risks, there is no way to add the risk matrix showing all of the project risks to the risk register. The Risk Register reporting views can all be used for Ad-hoc report though and specifically the Risky Matrix with all of the project risks using either the Printing feature or you can save the Risk Matrix as an image.
To print the risk matrix, open the Risk Matrix View. Select the risks that you want to include. The from the File menu, choose Print, Print Preview to view the chart. Then click Print. To save the risk matrix as an image, right-click on the risk matrix and from the shortcut menu, click Copy chart to file. You can then save the matrix as an image on a local drive. All major image types are supported.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1197

Question about the Addin simulations with incomplete data

December 15 2015

Q: Question about the Addin simulations with incomplete data

One of users had incorrectly added information required for selecting the statistical distribution as show in the Mapping dialog. He was just entering in a text description “triangular” in the field he had mapped, in this case Text 27. From the documentation it appears that we need to use the Duration dialog box and it adds a string of code to the text field that has been mapped. Is this correct.

A: The Addin has been designed to be very flexible. We strongly recommend that users always use the dialog boxes provide in the Input Distributions group on the ribbon to enter or modify statistical distribution data. This will ensure consistency in the data in the simulations. We do allow for users to manually update the data once it is entered as some find this to be more convenient. In which case, the Addin will check to see if there are differences between the values entered in Statistical Distribution text field and the Durations for Low and High estimates. If there is a discrepancy, the Addin will use the values in the Duration fields for the simulation. In addition, if the Addin finds values in the Low and High duration fields as setup up in the mapping, but does not find the statistical distribution code, it will automatically assign a triangular distribution and allow the user to run the simulation.
Again we strongly recommend user to use the Statistical Distribution to add and maintain the low and high estimates and statistical distribution type for the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1198

Sensitivity Analysis

Decempber 15, 2015

Q: Sensitivity Analysis

I have been viewing some of you videos and it was showing the sensitivity as a % rather than a decimal value (eg. 45% vs 0.345). It seems to provide a bit more intuitive value when it is a %. I have looked in the Project options views and Calculations etc and can’t seem to find anything to switch it over.

A: As you noticed the sensitivity value can be shown using two types of methods. The first is the Spearman rank correlation and is the standard calculation method that we use to calculate all correlation and sensitivity (which is a type of correlation) during the monte carlo simulation. However as you noted, it is not particularly user friendly especially for anyone who is not familiar with these types of statistical analysis. The % values you are seen is call Contribution to Variance. This calculation uses the Spearman rank correlation, but normalizes the values to provide a % that the particular risk or activity contributes to the variance that we see in a specific project parameter.
You can select which method in the Sensitivy view not the Project Options. After running a simuilation, go the Analysis views, Sensitivity Analysis. At the top right corner click the Sensitivity Calculation Algorithm button and you can switch between the methods.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

Tornado Chart is missing

December 15 2015

Q: Tornado Chart is missing

After we run the Monte Carlo risks analysis, the Tornado chart only seems to show a few of the activities and the rest are filtered out. Why is this happening and how can add more activities to the view?

A: In an effort to simplify the interface and the amount of data shown in this view, we apply a cut off value such that it only shows activities or risks to which selected project parameters show a significant sensitivity. This is consistent with our goal to always provide views that prioritize and rank critical activities or risks so that they can be easily identified and support the project decision making process.
The filter is applied using a minimum sensitivity coefficient. By default, it is set to 0.16 which we typically find is a reasonable cut off value which will display the most critical values without adding populating too many rows in the Tornado chart.
You can modify this sensitivity coefficient in the Project Options, Calculations tab. Depending on the size and complexity of your project, you can experiment with this value so that it meets your analysis requirements.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com

http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1195

Monte Carlo simulation results for tasks

December 9, 2015

Q: Monte Carlo simulation results for tasks

Have you thought of any easier method to bring up the task charts? Once we have run the simulations, it would be nice just to select a task and bring up the results. Now it takes a couple of extra clicks, which seems unnecessary.

A: After you have run the Monte Carlo schedule risk assessment, you can quickly open the Task charts in any of the Gantt Chart views by double-clicking on the task bar. The charts are available in the Project View, Results Gantt, Success Rate, and Crucial Task.
In the example below, we can see the Crucial Task view is open, by double-click on the task’s bar in the Gantt Chart portion of the view, you can quickly bring up the simulation results, without either using the right-click menu or the Task Simulation Results buttons found on the Analysis tab.

For more information visit: www.intaver.com
http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1193