Q: Probabilistic Moment of Risk
How does the moment of risk affect results?
A: The moment of risk describes when a risk occurs during the execution of an activity. If you are using risk outcomes, such as Restart task or Cancel task, this can have a significant impact of the results. If we look at the chart below, we can see that depending upon when the risk occurs, this can have a significant impact on the expected duration of the activity. If the activity has resources assigned to it this can also impact time dependent costs.
Moment of risks also can impact the results if you have actuals. Risks probability is prorated over the course of a project. For example if we have a risk that has 50% probability with a uniform moment of risk (0-100%) then as the activity proceeds the probability of the risk will decrease relative to the work completed. Once the activity Is 50% complete, the probability of the risk will be reduced by 50% (.5*.5) and now be 25%.
Moreover if a risk has a moment of risk that can occur only on the first half of the activity and the risk has not occurred, its probability will be set to 0 for the remainder of the activity.
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