CorProfit is a new reseller of RiskyProject

March 24, 2016

CorProfit is a new reseller of RiskyProject

CorProfit has become new value added reseller of RiskyProject software. CorProfit provides management consulting, business development, market research, and professional training. CorProfit's dedicated team helps you develop business plan and strategy, understand customers, define brand, create powerful marketing solutions and improve processes. CorProfit is headquartered in Dubai, UAE.

For more information please visit: http://www.intaver.com/index-news.html

Mitigation and Response plan view

March 24, 2016

Q: Mitigation and Response plan view
Can I create a hierarchy of mitigation and response plan and Mitigation and Response view?

A: Yes, the Mitigation and Response Plans view supports hierarchies similar to how you would set up Summary and sub tasks in a Gantt Chart.
To create a subplans:

1. Create a plan. You can do this by simply typing a name into the name field, This will be the Plan
2. Under your plan, create another plan. You should now have two plans.
3. Select the second plan.
4. Click the outdent button on Structure > Outdent.

It is possible to create multiple levels.

For more information please visit: http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1237

Qualitative risk analysis

March 24, 2016

Q: Qualitative risk analysis
Are fields in Risk Information Dialog box (cost, trigger, etc.) linked to quantitative risk analysis?

A: Quick answer is no, this information is not used in the quantitative analysis, rather is part of the risk planning/management capability. If you are performing quantitative risk analysis, you can calculate the cost of the risk by turning risks off and on and using the difference in cost (or schedule) as the expected cost of the risk. This can then be entered in the Risk Properties and become the basis for the cost benefit analysis of particular risk handling strategies.

The same can be done for risk triggers. If you want to model this in the schedule, you can correlate risks to approximate this relationship.

For more information please visit: http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1236

Non-standard shift

March 24, 2016

Q: Non-standard shift
How can I assign non-standard shifts in calendars, e.g. all Mondays are not working; how calendar exceptions are defined?.

A: All calendars are defined in the Working Time dialog box. RiskyProject comes with 4 predefined calendars:

• Standard Working Time: Monday to Friday, 8 am – 5 pm, 1 hr lunch break
• Morning Off: 1-5 pm.
• Afternoon Off: 8 am – 12pm
• 24 Hours: 24 hrs/day, 7 day/week

If you select any of these calendars, they will apply these settings to the entire project calendar which can be set in Project Settings.
You can apply these settings to specific days in a calendar, by selecting a day and then clicking the working time options. For example if you wanted (as above) set Monday as non-working time, you would select each Monday in the calendar and then click the Nonworking Time option. When exceptions are made to the project calendar, the days are marked with a bar to indicate an exception.

By default if you import your schedule from another scheduling tool, RiskyProject will use the calendars that are defined in the scheduling tool.

For more information please visit: http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1235

Project Priorities

March 16, 2016
Q: Project Priorities
How do project priorities affect results of project portfolio analysis.
A: Project priorities reflect the importance of a project are used in the calculation of each project’s risk score. Priority levels range from 0% - 100%. By default projects have a priority of 100%. When risk scores are calculated . When you analyze risks at the project level the priority does not affect the risk score.
An example would be a risk that has a probability of 50% and impact of 50%. The risk score would be 25%.
However, if we looked a summary project risk register and the project itself had a priority of 50, then it would now be calculated as (.5 *.5*.5) =12.5%
This will be true for all of the risks for that particular project. Their risk scores will be weighted according to the project priority and in the portfolio views the risks scores for Cost, Schedule and other risk will be impacted by the project priority.

For more information please visit: http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1234

Calculation of risk impact

March 16, 2016

Q: Calculation of risk impact
Why are calculated risk impacts are different for individual projects as compared to a project portfolio in RiskyProject enterprise?

A: Imagine you are planning a supply convoy out to a refugee camp that is comprised of many trucks with varying loads, some load are much more critical than others. The trucks that carry the most critical supplies (e.g. medical) have a higher priority, they need to get there as quickly as possible. Whereas other trucks may be carrying less critical supplies and delivery time is less important, therefore they have lower priority.

Now when we are planning each vehicle has a risks that could delay the trip. For each vehicle, depending upon their age, make, etc., each risk might have its own probability and impact. The driver of the each truck can prioritize these risks and manage them accordingly. However, if we look at the convoy as a whole, we then need to manage the risks at the convoy level we understand how each risk could affect the convoy and the appropriate level at which to manage them.

For example, there are two risks that have been identified. One is “flat tires” and the other is “reluctance of local groups to allow safe passage”. Now on some trucks, the tire may have just been replaced and the chance that a flat will occur is relatively low, whereas in others, the opposite may be true. Depending on the priority of the trucks cargo, the risk score for each truck may be different even if they have the same probability of this occurring. In this case, you will allow each crew to assess and manage this risk on a truck by truck basis. If many of the high priority trucks will be impacted by this risk, the risk score will be higher. In this case, you may decide to manage this risk at the convoy level. If we look at the risk of being granted safe passage we will see that it will impact every truck in the convoy and this case must be managed by the convoy leaders.

Now if we replace trucks with projects and convoy with portfolio, we can see that each project can have the same risk, but with different risk scores. If we then look at the overall impact of the risks at a higher level, it may provide additional information regarding appropriate management actions to address the risk.

Here is an example how calculated impact is presented in risk register for RiskyProject Enterprise.


For more information please visit: http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1232

Risk correlations

March 16, 2016

Q: Risk correlations
How important is risk correlation: If risks are correlated vs. not correlated how does it affect results?

A: This is really a “it depends” question. Correlation means that if one risk occurs then it will trigger another to occur. It can be somewhat more complex than this especially if the correlated risks have different probabilities; however, for this discussion we will just keep it simple. What our own research has shown that risk correlation only has statistically significant impacts on simulation results if the correlation is 100% and the probabilities are relatively high.

Because of these findings, in RiskyProject our correlation is binary, either 0 or 100%. We believe this provides an accurate modelling without adding undue complexity to the models. Therefore, advice is that if you have two important risks that are correlated, then correlate them. Otherwise, use correlation with caution.

The example below illustrates the difference between event chain and independent events. Monte Carlo simulations were used to perform the analysis. The project includes three activities of 5 working days each. Each activity is affected by the event “restart activity” with a probability of 50%.

For more information please visit: http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1233

Probabilistic Moment of Risk

March 10, 2016

Q: Probabilistic Moment of Risk
How does the moment of risk affect results?

A: The moment of risk describes when a risk occurs during the execution of an activity. If you are using risk outcomes, such as Restart task or Cancel task, this can have a significant impact of the results. If we look at the chart below, we can see that depending upon when the risk occurs, this can have a significant impact on the expected duration of the activity. If the activity has resources assigned to it this can also impact time dependent costs.

Moment of risks also can impact the results if you have actuals. Risks probability is prorated over the course of a project. For example if we have a risk that has 50% probability with a uniform moment of risk (0-100%) then as the activity proceeds the probability of the risk will decrease relative to the work completed. Once the activity Is 50% complete, the probability of the risk will be reduced by 50% (.5*.5) and now be 25%.

Moreover if a risk has a moment of risk that can occur only on the first half of the activity and the risk has not occurred, its probability will be set to 0 for the remainder of the activity.

For more information please visit: http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1231

Risk Categories and Alternatives

March 10, 2016

Q: Risk Categories and Alternatives
If a risk is assigned to different categories: 20% increase cost and 20% increase duration, is it considered to be alternatives or not?

A: Short answer is no. Risk alternatives are risk assignments within the same risk category. Take a look at the examples below. In the first the risk has been assigned to schedule and cost categories (Fixed delay an Relative cost increase respectively). We can see in the risk alternative pie chart shows only a single probability. In the second, we have added another risk assignment to the cost category. It is now shown as risk alternative 1 and 2 and this is now reflected in the pie chart.

For more information please visit: http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1230

Project risk alternatives

March 10, 2016

Q: Project risk alternatives
What happens if sum of probabilities of all alternatives are greater than 100%?

A: If you are using alternative outcomes to model a risk impact, then these means you have assigned the same type of risk outcome type (Cost, Schedule, etc.) for a single risk more than once as in the example below. In this example we have the same risk assigned to a task with the same risk outcome type (Schedule). There are four risk outcomes, each with 3% chance of occurring. If we look at the pie chart below we can see that overall the risk has a 12% chance of occurring.
Now what happens if the risk alternatives add up to more than 100%. In the example below, we have increased the first 2 alternatives to 70% and 50% respectively. If we add up all the risk chances, it should now equal 126%. However, risks can only have a probability between 0 <>100%. If the risk alternatives add up to greater than 100%, RiskyProject will add the risk alternatives and cumulatively add the probabilities until they reach 100%. In this example, we can see in the pie chart that now first risk with 70% chance will be fully accounted for. However, the second alternative will only add an additional 30% at which point the cumulative chance of the alternatives is now 100%. In addition the last 2 alternatives are ignored.

For more information please visit: http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1229

Scenarios analysis

March 3, 2016

Q: Scenarios analysis
What is the best way to compare multiple scenarios with different sets of risks?

A: If you are creating multiple alternatives with different sets of risks, we recommend using multiple baselines. Baselines are very flexible and allow you to create alternative project plans with different sets of risks and/or activities.

Once you have created your scenarios using baselines, you can use the Manage Baselines view (Schedule >Baselines > Manage) to see a high level comparison of each scenario using major project parameters.

If you require more detail comparison, you can generate specific risk reports for each baseline. You do this by setting a baseline as the Current baseline and then running analysis and generate specific reports required for your comparison.

For more information please visit: http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1228

Cash Flow Uncertainties

March 3, 2016

Q: Cash Flow Uncertainties
How can I view statistical distribution of cost for specific period of time? Can I use cash flow chart for it?

A: If you want to characterise cost as including both cost and income, then you can use the Cash flow analysis to view cost for specific periods.
To do this, run a simulation and then open the Cash flow chart. On the left you will see the cash flow periods and the right is the cash flow chart.

You can modify the periodicity using the drop down menu on the bottom of the view. Periods can be monthly, bi monthly, quarterly, and yearly.
Select a period from the table on the left and right-click on the number (1,2,3 ….). On the shortcut menu, click Results for selected Interval.
The Results chart appears. You can choose a histogram, cumulative probability or both. As with all charts, these can be copied or saved.

For more information please visit: http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1227

Statistical distribution for lag

March 3, 2016

Q: Statistical distribution for lag
Can I assign risk event to lag? How to assign statistical distribution to lag?

A: You cannot assign a risk directly to a lag however, you can assign a statistical distribution to lag between predecessor and successor. This uncertainty in the duration of the lag is then accounted for during the Monte Carlo simulation.
To assign uncertainty to lags, open the Task Information dialog box and click the Predecessors tab. Here you can set lags. By default it is zero, but you can assign Low, Base, and High estimates for the lag If you enter low and high estimates, you must also select a distribution type.

For more information please visit: http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1226

New webinar "Mastering risk analysis with RiskyProject" on March 8, 2016

March 6, 2016

New webinar "Mastering risk analysis with RiskyProject" on March 8, 2016

Please joint us for webinar "Mastering risk analysis with RiskyProject". The standards for effective planning and management of projects are increasingly adopting Monte Carlo project risk analysis as an essential tool in an environment that is characterized by increased complexity and lowered risk tolerance. This webinar will show you a step by step process how to:

• - Import project plans from other scheduling software
• - Add uncertainty and risk events
• - Understand how to analyse the results
• - Generate key project risk analysis reports

To register for webinar please click here: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3597688179400315906

Built On Vision is new Intaver Institute's technology parther

February 29, 2016

Built On Vision is new Intaver Institute's technology parther

Intaver Institute will present paper "Project Schedule Risk Analysis with Events and Event Chains" on PMS 2016 - the 15th International Conference on Project Management and Scheduling. PMS 2016 will take place in Valencia, Spain, from April 19th until April 22nd. It is organized by the Universitat Politècnica de València and by the Universitat de València. PMS is an international conference series devoted to Project Management and Scheduling. It was inaugurated by the European Working Group on Project Management and Scheduling (EURO - EWG Project management and scheduling).

http://www.intaver.com/index-news.html

http://www.pms2016.com/