Q: Risk properties and risk analysis

September 9, 2015 Q: Risk properties and risk analysis Does the Start and End dates in the Risk Properties view impact the risk analysis? Particularly, in the Risk Properties view, does the risk Start and End Dates affect the results of the Monte Carlo risk analysis? A: Quick answer is no, the Start and End dates of the risk (sometimes referred to as sunrise and sunset) are part of the meta data used as part of the risk management process, but is not used as a input parameter in the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis. Risk does have a time dimension in addition to probability and impacts; however, when you assign risks to activities or resources, this time dimension of the risk is automatically accounted for by the time phased aspect of the tasks within the project schedule and resources assigned to them. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1114

What is the best distribution to use for schedule duration?

August 31, 2015 Q: What is the best distribution to use for schedule duration? When you add low and high durations to an activity, what type of distribution is the best? thanks A: In reality, there is no “Best” distribution to use for schedule or cost risk analysis. The statistical distribution for any parameter (cost, duration etc) should be the one that best fits your data. If this data does exist for particular type of activities, then you can select the distribution which best fits your data or you can create a custom distribution. However, in reality, most of our users do not have this data available for the type of activity. In these cases, we suggest using Triangular statistical distribution as the default. Triangular distributions only require that you provide Best Case, Most Likely, and Worst Case values without requiring any additional parameters. In our experience, triangular distributions are used in 90% of schedule risk analysis and to a lesser degree in cost risk analysis (as the this data is more readily available.) http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1092

Statistical distribution for duration

September 4, 2015 Q: Statistical distribution for duration As part of our Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis, as a first draft we are not yet requiring our team members to provide estimates for low and high duration. We want to import our schedule from Microsoft Project and quickly add uncertainties to all of the activities. I seem to remember that you can do this in RiskyProject, but I can’t find it. A: In RiskyProject you can quickly add uncertainty to your tasks. Uncertainties are expressed as statistical distribution and will be based as an input in Monte Carlo simulation process. These statistical distributions will be used for task duration and task costs. We recommend as a first step develop levels of uncertainty each with coefficients used to calculate Low and High estimates. For example, you can If you have activities that are very routine and have very little uncertainty, they can be characterized as Very Low risk with coefficients for Low and High . 95 and 1.1 respectively. You can do this for all your activities in Microsoft Project and when you import it into RiskyProject, this will allow you to quickly select specific risk groups to apply the uncertainty. To apply the uncertainties to groups of activities. Select the tasks, right-click on the Task ID of one of the selected tasks and click Set Low High Duration from the shortcut menu. You can enter the coefficients you have defined as well as assign a statistical distribution type to the group. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1103

September 6, 2015 Q: Order of views in Monte Carlo Statistics Report The statistics report looks pretty useful feature for schedule risk analysis. We would prefer however to have sensitivity analysis shown before the other charts. And we would probably like fewer charts per task. A: You can change the order of views shown in Statistics Report with results of Monte Carlo simulations. This view shows results of Monte Carlo simulation of project schedules, including probability disruptions for task and project duration, start and finish time, cost, as well as results of sensitivity analysis presented as tornado diagrams. Not sure if you noticed, but there is a Customize Report button that is located at the bottom of the list of tasks on the left of the view. If you click it, the Format Statistics Report dialog box opens. The main options to set up the chart data are located in the middle of the dialog, the Charts and Data and Order of Data tables option groups. The first group allows to set up how the frequency and cumulative probability data is shown in the Report. Click a checkbox to enable that chart or data type. The only condition is that you can either combine the Monte Carlo frequency and probability plots into one chart or show them separately, you cannot have both. In the Order of Data Tables, this allows you to enable the charts for the different data types as well as, using the Move Up and Move Down button, create and set the default order of the charts. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1110

September 8, 2015 Q: Statistics report for project risk analysis I have runs a Monte Carlo risk analysis and have seen the results in the Analysis views. But when I open the Statistics Report, I cannot get it to show any results. A: The issue is most likely because you have not actually selected any tasks to view. Statistic report shows results of Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis for selected task and for whole project. In the Statistics Report, just clicking on a task does not select it. There are two methods that you can use to “select” tasks in the Statistics Report. The first is to click in the Display Statistics Report checkbox. By default it is located to the right of the task name. In this example, for identification I have added text D to the column description, though by default it is blank. You can add a identifier to the column by right-clicking on the column header and clicking Modify Column: Alternatively, to quickly select multiple tasks, add an identifier to each task you need to report on to a text field. For example, add the identifier “RPT” in the Text1 field. Go to Schedule > Zoom and Find > Find. Enter the search parameters and click Find. This will select all of the Report tasks in the Statistics Report View. You can now generate your Monte Carlo statistics reports. Tip. You can add the identifier in Microsoft Project or other tool as long as it is in Text1 to Text5 fields. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1112

Percentile Options for Monte Carlo Simulations

September 9, 2015 Q: Percentile Options for Monte Carlo Simulations How do the Calculation Options for Low, Base and High affect the Monte Carlo simulations? Do they affect how the low and high estimates (inputs) are interpreted? For example, the default setting appears to be P10 and P90. If I have a task with a 10 day most likely and add 8 for low and 15 for high. Does 8 days represent that the task could be completed in 8 days 10% of the time, but there is still a possibility it could be lower (e.g. 7 days?) A: No, the Monte Carlo calculation settings on control what values are shown in the risk analysis result views. In RiskyProject, in the risk analysis views you will see columns for Low, Mean, and High. The Calculation option is indicting what the P value from the Monte Carlo analysis represent for Low and High duration, costs, start time, finish time, etc. For example, if you would like to set schedule margins at P80 for duration, you can set this up in the Calculation Options so that the P value is displayed automatically for Project and task results.

Switch from project to portfolio risk analysis

September 1, 2015 Switch from project to portfolio risk analysis RiskyProject Lite and RiskyProject Professional perform analysis of single project only. If you want to preform risk analysis based on shared list of risks for your organization, you would need to use RiskyProject Enterprise. RiskyProject Enterprise you two components: server and client. The server component is a database which needs to be installed on the server. The client component is essentially RiskyProject Professional or RiskyProject Lite, which can be installed on client computer. The client component needs to be configured to talk with the database on the server. If you already have RiskyProject Professional you need to install server component and configure RiskyProject Professional connection to the database. All instructions how to install server component can be found in RiskyProject Administrator’s guide, which comes with RiskyProject install package. Server database is using Microsoft SQL Server or SQL Server Express version 2005 and up. When you install RiskyProject server database you need to go Tools->Update RiskyProject License. The License Wizard dialog will come up. There are three possible configurations of RiskyProject: Trial License, Regular Desktop license, and Enterprise client. You current configuration will be grayed out. You select different configuration: in your case it will be Enterprise client. After this you need to close RiskyProject Professional. When you start RiskyProject again you need to configure connection to the database as it is described in RiskyProject Administrator’s guide. After you configure connection between RiskyProject Professional and server database you may perform Monte Carlo Schedule and Cost risk analysis for all particular projects within a portfolio. Risks and results of Monte Carlo simulations will be saved in the database and shared between different users on your organization. http://www.intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1101