New white paper “Heuristics and Biases in Project Management”

December 6, 2016

New white paper “Heuristics and Biases in Project Management”

As we go about our lives, whenever we make decisions, whether they are relatively important, “what strategies or tactics should we use to reduce project cost?”, or relatively trivial, “is No-Name peanut butter really a better bargain than the brand-name version?”, we are forced to assess probabilities or essentially make bets, which is not an easy task. We often apply rules of thumb or heuristics when we make judgments about probabilities of future events. In many cases, using these rules will help us make good decisions. However, depending upon the situation,  this type of decision making can lead to faulty judgments or biases. In this paper we will focus on a few common heuristics and biases which affect project management: availability, anchoring, representativeness, and others. Please click here to read our white papers:

http://intaver.com/technology/articles-and-white-papers/

Intaver Institute will attend IPM Workshop 2017, October 30 – November 1, 2017 in Bethesda, Maryland

September 16, 2017

Intaver Institute will attend IPM Workshop 2017, October 30 – November 1, 2017 in Bethesda, Maryland

Intaver Institute will present its RiskyProject software in 29th Integrated Program Management Workshop in Bethesda, Maryland. IPM Workshop is focused on Earned Value Management, Project Risk Analysis, Agile and EVM, and a range of Project Performance Management Techniques. For last 5 years Intaver Institute exhibited its RiskyProject project risk management and risk analysis software there.  The workshop venue is Bethesda North Marriott Hotel & Conference Center. Please joint us in Bethesda, October 30 – November 1.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/news/

http://ipmworkshop.org/

New Free Webinar “Introduction to the RiskyProject Risk Register”

September 9, 2017

New Free Webinar “Introduction to the RiskyProject Risk Register”

Intaver Institute announced new webinar “Introduction to the RiskyProject Risk Register”. RiskyProject Enterprise offers a new Risk Register module that simplifies qualitative risk analysis and management. This can be useful in cases where projects do not meet thresholds for qualitative analysis or in cases where detailed cost and schedule estimates are not available at the program or portfolio level. This webinar will show you how to:

• Set up the risk register module so it is optimized for qualitative risk analysis
• Identify and assess risks
• Create risk plans
• Generate reports

For more information please visit: 

http://intaver.com/news/

New book “Project Value at Risk”

July 4, 2017

New book “Project Value at Risk”

Nicki Kons, one of Intaver Institute consulting partners published new book “PVaR – Project Value at Risk“. PVaR is a new indicator for connecting risks to the most important questions in project management: when will the project be completed and at what cost? It is based on the widely accepted VaR financial indicator. PVaR will change how you think about project management and about risks. The book introduces the amazing progress and mini revolutions currently taking place in risk management and shows how project management and organizations could gain from it all. The book includes practical questionnaires and examples that will add value to your current project management practices. Will project management become more quantitative? Stay the same? Change completely? The insights in PVaR highlight the path ahead for project management.

for more information visit: https://www.amazon.com/PVaR-Project-Value-at-Risk/dp/1530808014/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1499191241&sr=8-1&keywords=Nicki+Kons

New book “Further Advances in Project Management: Guided Exploration in Unfamiliar Landscapes”

May 22, 2017

New book “Further Advances in Project Management: Guided Exploration in Unfamiliar Landscapes”

Book “Further Advances in Project Management: Guided Exploration in Unfamiliar Landscapes” edited by Darren Dalcher includes topics on people, communication, ethics, change management, value realization, benefits, complexity, decision-making, project assurance, communication, knowledge management, big data, project requirements, business architecture, stakeholder engagement, strategy, users, systems thinking and resilience. The main aims of the collection are to reflect on the state of practice within the discipline and to propose new extensions and additions to good practice.

Intaver Institute principals wrote one chapter of this book “Memory and Project Mental Errors”.

April 16, 2017

Book “Project Risk Analysis Made Ridiculously Simple” is now available on Google Books

BookRiskAnalysisBook “Project Risk Analysis Made Ridiculously Simple” written by Intaver Institute’s staff members is now available on Google Books. If you use or planning to use RiskyProject this book can become a starting point to learn project risk analysis and risk management. The book shows in details how to perform schedule and cost analysis of projects and portfolios. Many examples in this book in done using RiskyProject software. Google version on the book includes table of content and few first chapters. Here are the main section of the book:
Project risk management and qualitative risk analysis
Quantitative project risk analysis
Advanced quantitative project risk analysis
Portfolio risk analysis
The aim of the book is to provide a practical overview of the project risk management process that covers both theory and practice and would serve as a useful guide to a wide range of readers from students to project risk experts. The book covers all aspects of the project risk management process as covered by more project management organizations including PMI and ISO 31000. It includes interesting discussions of famous historical event from a project risk perspective. In addition, the book will provide practical step by step guides for implementing
a project risk management process.

http://intaver.com/news/

Intaver Institute on Risk Governance Forum

March 30, 2017
Intaver Institute on Risk Governance Forum
DSC05889Intaver Institute presented its methodology and risk analysis software at Policy Forum “Risk Governance for Key Enabling Technologies” organized by Society for Risk Analysis (SRA). The forum was held in Cultural Center Don Orione Artigianelli, in Venice, Italy. The topic of Intaver’s presentation was “Risk Governance Framework for Aerospace and Defence Projects”. The presentation included discussions about Event Chain Methodology as well as project risk analysis and risk management software RiskyProject and their applications in aerospace and defence industry. The SRA Forum “provided discussion of current initiatives that are centered in refining the risk governance of emerging technologies through the integration of traditional risk analytic tools “.The next event organized by SRA are 26th SRA-Europe Annual Conference 19 June – 21 June 2017 in Lisbon, Portugal.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/news/

New webinar on project risk analysis.

March 17, 2017

New webinar on project risk analysis.

New fee webinar “Step-by-step Schedule Risk Analysis with RiskyProject” is scheduled for Tuesday, March 21, 2017,
10:00 AM – 11:00 AM MST (UTC-07:00).  This this webinar you will learn about few simple steps how to streamline your risk analysis and communicate the results. To register for webinar please click here.

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8275558210504260355

Maximum number of mitigation and response plans

March 10, 2017

Q: Maximum number of mitigation and response plans
What is the maximum number of mitigation and response plans in RiskyProject?

A: Maximum number of mitigation and response plans in risk mitigation view is 2000. Maximum number of mitigation plans which can be assigned to one risk and presented within Waterfall diagram of Risk Information dialog is also 2000.
It is more than enough for any work in risk mitigation. Please note that in any view in grids there different number of maximum number of rows. For example, maximum number of tasks is 20,000, maximum number of resources is 2,000. Maximum number of risks is also 2,000.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1350

Base duration for Normal and Uniform distributions

March 10, 2017

Q: Base duration for Normal and Uniform distributions
I have Low Duration = 5 days, Base Duration = 6 days and High Duration = 10 days. I think Base Duration is ignored when I define Normal and Uniform distributions.

A: Base duration is not used for the sampling process when you define any distributions except for Triangular. The image below presents your case.

Image

Please note that base duration is reflected in Triangular distribution, but Normal distribution is generated based on low and high duration values only. The same is true for non-symmetrical distributions, such as lognormal. You may use slides in Distribution tab to adjust most likely (peak) of lognormal. However base duration is used for deterministic (original) project schedule. Sometimes you may switch distribution to Triangular from any other, therefore it is important to ensure that base duration is correct.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1349

Intaver Support Team
Intaver Institute Inc.
Home of Project Risk Management and Project Risk Analysis software RiskyProject
www.intaver.com

What is the difference between risk outcome value and risk outcome type?

February 27, 2017

Q: What is the difference between risk outcome value and risk outcome type?
Risk Outcomes and Risk Outcome Types

A: In RiskyProject, the word Outcome was originally added to differentiate risk assessment inputs and outputs. In RiskyProject, outcome types and outcomes are analogous risk categories and impacts when entering risk assignments to the system. Outcome types are analogous to risk categories. When the system risk register is set up, the system has hardcoded risk categories and outcomes.

When you assign risks, you select the outcome type and then the outcome which is the estimated impact of the risk on the outcome type.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1347

Defining uncertainties for lags

February 27, 2017

Q: Defining uncertainties for lags
Do you have statistical distributions for lags and how are they defined?

A: Yes, if you want to define a lag with uncertainty (has a most likely, low and high estimates) , you can add this to the predecessor in the Task Information > Predecessors tab.

When you create a predecessor link to a task, open the Task Information dialog box and click the Predecessors tab. Here you can add the Low, Base, and High estimates for the lag as well as select the statistical distribution type.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1348

Assigning Risks to specific objects in the Portfolio Hierarchy

February 27, 2017

Q: Assigning Risks to specific objects in the Portfolio Hierarchy
How to can I assign risks to a specific division of our company in RiskyProject Enterprise?

A: In RiskyProject Enterprise, you can use both projects and summary projects to represent divisions, regions, facilities, or other type of organization object. Your companies structure can be represented in the Portfolio hierarchy and each one of the objects will have its own separate risk register.
Once you have created your organizations structure, you can add risks specifically to each division or other level of the hierarchy using Risk Visibility settings. Risk Visibility allows you to set where in your organization’s hierarchy the risk can be assigned.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1346

Intaver Institute announces a new webinar

February 16, 2017

Intaver Institute announces a new webinar

We  will be providing a free webinar “Introduction to project risk management: Risk Registers and more” on Tuesday May 2nd, 2017 at 10am MST. The webinar will show how participants how to set  up and use risk register to manage the complete risk lifecycle. Click here to register for this webinar.

In addition, there is also a scheduled webinar “Step-by-step Schedule Risk Analysis with RiskyProject” on Tuesday March 7th, 2017, that will provides an easy to follow process to perform schedule risk analysis. Click here to register for this webinar.

Read more about the webinars: http://intaver.com/services/riskyproject-webinars/

To register: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8668004692765042434

Organizational Breakdown Structure in RiskyProject Enterprise

February 16, 2017

Q: Organizational Breakdown Structure in RiskyProject Enterprise
Can I synchronize Organizational Breakdown Structure in RiskyProject with LDAP?

A: Unfortunately in present moment you cannot synchronize Organizational Breakdown Structure in RiskyProject in LDAP. you have to manually make all updates.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1345

Printing Charts

February 16, 2017

Q: Printing Charts
How can I print a histogram chart?

A: There are multiple ways that you can generate print outs off histogram charts.

Method 1: Copy Chart to Clipboard
Right-click on the histogram and choose Copy Chart to Clipboard as either a metafile or a bitmap. This will save the chart as an image to your clipboard and you can then paste it into a document to print.

Method 2. Save to file
Right-click on the histogram and choose Copy Chart to File. You will be prompted to save the file. Remember to select the file format you prefer. We recommend png format as is does not lose quality if you need to change the size. Once you have saved the chart to file, you can insert it into a document for printing.

Method 3: Print the Statistics Report
Once you have run a simulation. Go to Reports > Statistics Report. Select the activity that you want to use to print the histogram. Depending upon how you have the report set up, the histograms (1 per page) for the selected activity will appear in the Report pane. From the File menu, choose Print > Print to print the report with the histograms.

For more information visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1343

Modifying PowerPoint templates used with the Statistics Report

February 16, 2017

Q: Modifying PowerPoint templates used with the Statistics Report
Can I modify or use a different template for the statistics report?

A: The PowerPoint template that comes with RiskyProject is there for purely as an example of a Report template that can be used. You can use any PowerPoint template with the Statistics Report to include you organizations designs. Microsoft provides free examples here https://templates.office.com/en-us/templates-for-PowerPoint.

To change the PowerPoint template you would like to use go to Reports > Statistics Report. Click Customize Report. In the Format Statistics Report dialog box, click the Browse button to select a PowerPoint template (.ppt) to use.

For more information visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1344

New book “Project Risk Analysis Made Ridiculously Simple”

February 8, 2017

New book “Project Risk Analysis Made Ridiculously Simple”

Project management is the art of analyzing and managing risks. Without risk, there is little need for project management. Project Risk Analysis Made Ridiculously Simple offers a step-by-step guide on how to perform project risk analysis and risk management for a wide range of readers: students, project schedulers not exposed to project risk analysis before, and to project risk experts. The book is written by Intaver Institute staff members.
With this book, you will learn how to:
Identify and manage risks over the course of a project
Perform qualitative and quantitative risk analysis
Perform project risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulations
Use event chain methodology to improve project risk analysis
Perform risk analysis of project portfolios.

For more information please visit: https://www.amazon.com/Analysis-Ridiculously-Scientific-Now-Publishers-Business-ebook/dp/B01MZDXN2Y/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1486579618&sr=8-1&

Risks on Gantt bars

January 31, 2017
Risks on Gantt bars
What do the colors and sizes of the risk arrows in Gantt chart bar (probability, impact)

A: The arrows are indicators of risks that are assigned to the particular task. If the arrow is pointing down it is a Threat, if arrows points up it is opportunities. The larger the chance of the risk, the larger the arrow will be. Low impact will be green, medium impact will be yellow, high impact is red.

To view the risk assignment represented by the risk, double-click on the risk arrow and information about the local risk assignment will be shown.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1342

Januray 31, 2017

Q: Adjusting the displayed high and low results
How can I see the P1/P99 or similar results for each task?

A: This is a 2-step process: first you have to change the percentiles used for high and low results. Second you need can view high and low results in the Resullt Gantt.

The Low and High results by default are set to P10 and P90. You can select either from several options or define custom percentile for low and high results. To modify to low and high results go to the Schedule tab>Settings and Options>Project Options> Calculations. In the Calculations tab, select the P1/P99 option.
Now go to Analysis > Result Gantt view. The Low Dur and High Dur columns are now showing p1/p99 results for each task.

FOr more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1341

January 31, 2017

Q: Do I have to renter all of my estimates if they already exist to run a simulation?
Hi, I have a very large schedule and already have gathered all of the low and high estimates needed to run a Monte Carlo simulation. The problem is that I have to use the Addin’ s Duration dialog box to add a statistical distribution type and seeds and when I do this it overwrites my original estimates.

A: If you do not require a statistical distribution other than triangular distribution, then all you require is to map your Low and High estimates in the Field Mapping dialog box. In the example below, the fields are Duration1 and Duration2 for low and high estimates respectively. In addition, we have selected Text11 to contain the statistical distribution information. The statistical distribution information contains the estimates in hours, Seed number, and distribution type and is written in this format: 1^480^1440^2400^351317824^0^2^0 (see the User Guide for description.) In the example below, we have not added any statistical distribution data. However, even without this data defined, you can run a quick simulation.
When the data is prepared for the Monte Carlo simulation, if there are low and high estimates for a task, but no Seed or distribution type, RiskyProject automatically adds the seed and a triangular distribution to all tasks with low and high estimates. All you need to do is click the Calculate button to run the simulation. You will know it is complete, when the Project Information opens.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1340

Saving distribution for task duration in RiskyProject Enterprise

January 19, 2017

Q: Saving distribution for task duration in RiskyProject Enterprise
I performed Monte Carlo simulations of project schedule and saved results in the database. Do you save distributions for project duration, finish time, and cost or you save distributions for individual tasks as well?


A: We save statistical distributions for project parameters, such as project duration, cost, and finish times in RiskyProject Enterprise database. In fact we save all samples for project duration, cost, and finish times for each iterations of Monte Carlo simulation. Based on these samples we generate statistical distribution which are displayed when you double click on Gantt bar in project portfolio view.
We also save tasks durations, costs, work, start and finish times for each iterations of Monte Carlo simulations. However these information is used only for interface with other project scheduling and portfolio management software. When you perform Monte Carlo simulations, save a schedule and open it again, you would need to perform Monte Carlo simulations again to see results for individual tasks.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1339

Base duration for uniform distribution

January 19, 2017

Q: Base duration for uniform distribution
I have a uniform distribution from 5 days to 10 days. The base duration is 7 days. What does the base duration mean for uniform distribution?

A: In case of uniform distribution, based duration will not be used for probabilistic calculation. It is used for deterministic calculation only. The same is true for most other distributions, such as normal, discrete and custom. Based duration will be used for Triangular distribution only.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1338

Using undo command

January 19, 2017

Q: Using undo command
I'm using undo command CTRL+Z. It seems to me it correctly undo previous changes in the project schedule, however there is a limited number of changes I can undo. How many changes I can undo?


A: Undo command (CTRL+Z shortcut) can help to undo some but all changes in the project schedule. Also you cannot undo changes in the risk register and list of mitigation plan. For example you cannot undo changes in task name or task duration, but you can undo deleting or inserting tasks. To use Undo command you can either use CTRL+Z or click on button on the left pan of Schedule menu.
RiskyProject does not have predefined number of changes, which you can undo. Everything depends on available RAM. RiskyProject dynamically allocates memory for undo buffer. Undo buffer can include 10 or more schedules. Essentially when you undo your schedule you revert to the previous schedule.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1337

Percent completed for summary tasks

January 14, 2017

Q: Percent completed for summary tasks
How risky project calculates percent completed for the summary tasks and complete project if different subtasks have different percent completed?

A: Sometimes different subtasks have different percent completed. In example below percent completed for subtasks are 0%, 50%, and 100%. Percent completed for summary tasks are calculated automatically. In this example it equals 72%.
Percent completed for subtasks are defined in Tracking tab of Task information dialog box. Percent completed for summary tasks are read only. It is calculated based on algorithm implemented in Microsoft Project and other project management software. It takes into an account percent completed for all subtasks.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1336

Remaining Duration

January 14, 2017

Q: Remaining Duration
Can a change a column name in any view?


A: In RiskyProject remaining duration is calculated base % completed. It is done automatically. You can enter percent completed using Tracking tab in Task information dialog box (double click on Task ID and go to tracking tab).

You can also enter remaining duration in Tracking tab. Remaining duration entered in tracking tab affects probabilistic calculation only. It affects probabilistic calculation only. Remaining duration can be probabilistic. You can define distribution of remaining duration. First you may enter low, base, and high estimates of remaining duration. Then you can right click on item ID and select Distribution for remaining duration. You can select distribution for duration and define its parameters.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1335

Column name

January 14, 2017

Q: Column name
Can a change a column name in any view?


A: You can chance column name in the grid for each view, but not in dialog boxes. For example, you can change column name for Risk Register, Result Gantt, Cost and Income, Resources and other views, but you cannot change column name of task information, resource information, and risk information dialog boxes. Changing column name is very useful when you try to translate column name on another language.

To change column name right click on column header - the column will be highlighted. Then from drop down menu Select Modify Column. In the dialog overwrite column name with new column name.

New column name will be saved in the project file. Each time you open ALM file you will be presented with new column name.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1334

Intaver Institute’s New US Headquarters

January 6, 2017

Intaver Institute’s New US Headquarters

Intaver Institute Inc. today announced that they have established a new headquarters located in Naples, Florida, USA. The new US location will provide Intaver Institute Inc. a platform to better reach and service both new and existing customers of our project risk management and risk analysis software suite RiskyProject. “Our new location in the US will allow us to provide better service for our US customer base by expanding our software development and customer support operations to include both the Calgary and Naples locations”, said Michael Weiner, President and General Manager of Naples, Florida headquarter of Intaver Institute Inc. “Our new headquarters will be tightly aligned with the needs of key stakeholders and showcase our strategic growth initiatives in the area of project risk management and risk analysis software”.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/news/

Maximum Project Duration

January 5, 2017

Q: Maximum Project Duration
What is the maximum project duration in RiskyProject Settings? How does it affect calculations?

A: Maximum project durations are set in the Project Settings dialog box. By default the maximum is set to 50 years. If the project duration exceeds the maximum duration, that is from the start date in any simulation it exceeds the maximum duration the project is cancelled for the particular iteration. This affects the overall success rate of the project.

In the example below, the maximum project duration has been set to 1 year. The project has a base duration of 200 working days, but could be as high as 300. Because of the uncertainties, the project is likely to exceed the maximum project duration on the majority of the iterations as the success rate is only 21%. That is, the project exceeds the 1 year maximum in 79% of the iterations.


For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1333

Importing RiskyProject files to RiskyProject Enterprise

January 5, 2017

Q: Importing RiskyProject files to RiskyProject Enterprise
In RiskyProject Enterprise can we import project from RiskyProject Lite?

A: Yes. RiskyProject Enterprise has a built in feature to import or export any RiskyProject files with an *.alm extension. It does not matter if the files are from RiskyProject Lite or Professional versions.

To import a RiskyProject file to RiskyProject Enterprise:
1. Open RiskyProject Enterprise and click the Projects tab.
2. In the Project Hierarchy, select the row in which you want to place the imported file.
3. In the Export/Import group, click the Import Project from File button. The Open dialog box opens.
4. Navigate to the file (*.alm) and click Open. You can rename the project if required in the Project Name box.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1332

January 5, 2017

Q: Calculating Expected Costs
How do you calculate an expected value for the cost of a project?

A: Expected values are calculated automatically as part of the Monte Carlo simulation and can be derived as cumulative probability or percentile. In the example below, the project has an expected value (EV) of $17,152,674.94 at the p80. In layman’s terms this means that the cost of the project will be at or below this cost 8 out of 10 times.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1331