Effect of Statistical Distributions on Success Rates

December 23, 2016

Q: Effect of Statistical Distributions on Success Rates

Does the type of statistical distribution matter when we calculate success rate due to deadline?

A: Yes, the success rate can be affected if the distributions have significantly different probability density at the deadline. In the example below, there are two tasks with the exact same estimates, but the statistical distributions are different: Triangular and Uniform with deadlines set at 6 days, one more than the base estimate of five. We can see that Task 1 has a much higher success rate than Task 2. This is because the probability or area under the curve at ≥ 6 days is greater with the Uniform Distribution and therefore the success rate of finishing at or before 6 day duration is less for Task 2.
Statistical distribution for duration for task 1 is Trangular.
Statistical distribution for duration for task 2 is Uniform

For more information visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1328

Combining Deadlines and Branching

December 16, 2016

Q: Combining Deadlines and Branching

What happens if a deadline is placed on one of the alternative branches

A: Depending upon where the deadline occurs, it can reduce the success rate of of the branch. Deadlines can be used to measure how often an activity is successfully completed before a certain date. If you run 1000 iterations and the activity finishes on or before the deadline 660 times. The success rate will be 66%.

In addition, success rates are also affected by branching and show how often particular branches meet the criteria set for the branches. If we have both branching and deadlines combined.

In the example below, a deadline has been place on Scenario 2 > Phase 3 on the same day as the Base Finish Time. This deadline cuts off any results that exceed the Base finish time and has therefore a reduced success rate when compared to the other two scenarios .

For more information visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1327

Launching MS Project from RiskyProject

December 16, 2016

Q: Launching MS Project from RiskyProject
I noticed that from the Launch menu, it lists several tools including MS Project. How does this work and will it send the results of my analysis to MS Project?

A: If you run a risk analysis in RiskyProject, you can automatically export it back to MS Project either as the original plan or based on a certainty level (percentile) based on results of the simulation.  To export you results to MS Project.
1. Run a simulation.
2. From the File menu, choose Launch and then Microsoft Project. The Export Schedule dialog box opens.
3. Select either Deterministic (the original plan) or a percentile. Low and High are defined in the Project Options > Calculation. By default this is P10 and P90. Or you can enter a custom percentile.
4. Click OK. The schedule will open in MS Project.


For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1326

Addin fails to load cannot find resources folder

December 2, 2016

Q: Addin fails to load cannot find resources folder

A: If you get an error message that the Addin failed to load an OutputDistr.png in a Resources folder this can happen if you have installed the software in a User folders of the system. The standard location is c:/program files/Intaver/RiskyProject xxx/ or any other location, defined during installation process. The resources folder is a virtual folder that is created at runtime and contains files used to generate the addin. In the above case, Microsoft Project will look of the Resource file in the install location, where as the Addin will generate resource folder in Program Files.
To fix this uninstall RiskyProject and reinstall it in the Program Files or any other location, defined during installation process.

For more information visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1321

Primavera integration task links

December 16, 2016

Q: Primavera integration task links
Unlike MS Project, Primavera supports tasks that have both FF and SS link between them. Is this supported in RiskyProject?

A: RiskyProject will import a schedule that has two tasks that are linked with both SS and FF relationships. However, because RiskyProject does not natively allow users to create these types of links, it will ignore one of the links.

For more information please visit: http://intaver.com/IntaverFrm/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1325

New book: Handbook of Research on Leveraging Risk and Uncertainties for Effective Project Management

December 23, 2016

New book: Handbook of Research on Leveraging Risk and Uncertainties for Effective Project Management

The Handbook of Research on Leveraging Risk and Uncertainties for Effective Project Management, by  Yuri Raydugin (Editor), published by IGI Global is a comprehensive reference source for emerging perspectives on managing risks associated with the execution and development of projects. Intaver Institute staff members contributed two chapters to this book.
Highlighting innovative coverage written by top industry specialists, such as complexity theory, psychological bias and risk management fallacies, probabilistic risk analysis, and various aspects of project decision making, this book is ideally designed for project and risk managers, project engineers, cost estimators, schedulers, safety and environmental protection specialists, corporate planners, financial and insurance specialists, corporate decision makers, as well as academics and lecturers working in the area of project management and students pursing PMP, PMI-RMP, ISO 31000, etc. certification.

For more information visit: http://www.igi-global.com/book/handbook-research-leveraging-risk-uncertainties/165881
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RiskyProject Integration with CA PPM (CA Clarity PPM)

December 6, 2016
RiskyProject Integration with CA PPM (CA Clarity PPM)
CA Project and Portfolio Management (CA Clarity PPM) provides the visibility, control, and automation to support today’s most critical business processes, including IT Governance, New Product Development, Risk and Controls Management and Enterprise Program Management (EPM).  RiskyProject/CA PPM solution enables integrated qualitative and quantitative project and portfolio risk management and risk analysis based on CA PPM data. Intaver Institute Inc. using technology and tools offered by its partner IT-ROI Solutions implements custom integration between RiskyProject/CA PPM.  RiskyProject can read project and portfolio schedules as well as risks with their properties from CA PPM. Using this information RiskyProject generates risk adjusted project schedules, rank projects based on risks and uncertainties within a portfolio, select critical risks and perform risk mitigation planning.

For more information visit: http://www.itroisolutions.com/