What could possibly happen to my project? If you are a project manager or
member of a project team, this question has probably crossed you mind on many
occasions and it is a key to project success. When you ask this question, you
are identifying risks that could happen during your project, which is the first
step in managing your project risks. This step is called “Risk Identification”
just asking what could happen is a good way to start, there are several
methodologies you can use to improve your ability to identify project risks.
Brainstorming is perhaps the most popular method for identifying risks. While
imagination and “thinking outside the box” are encouraged, it should be guided
so that it focuses on risks that could impact key project objectives or critical
activities. The goal is to cast a wide a net as possible, nothing out of bounds
at this stage.
Alternatively, you can use input from experts or SME (Subject Matter
Experts). One such method is Delphi. Delphi is a much more regimented process in
which a facilitator sends out questionnaires to participant who remains
anonymous throughout the process. They are asked to return their answers to the
questionnaire to the facilitator. The facilitator then captures the ideas and
sends out new questionnaires to refine the items identified in the first round.
This process is iterative and continues until a consensus is reached.
Interviewing techniques can also be used to identify risks. In this process,
confidentiality is used to elicit risks from project team members that
ordinarily might not be identified in group settings due to group think and
psychological effects. The confidentiality provides anonymity that otherwise
would constrain individuals from providing complete disclosure. These three
techniques are perhaps the most popular and can be used in any scale of project,
but there are additional methods that can be used to augment the risk
identification process.
SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Threats, Opportunity) is a process in
these elements are represented a diagram and the project team identify internal
and external factors for each element. It is very useful not only for
identifying risks, but also to support decision making in the presence of risk
and uncertainty.
Cause and Effect analysis are extremely useful in identifying underlying
situation that can cause a risk to occur. Often cause and effect diagrams will
generate causal chains of events where conditions and actions can trigger or
make more probable a series of related risks to occur.
Event Chain Diagrams is a visualization technique that identifies risk and
causal relationships between them. The relationships are event chains and help
project managers identify and manage the risks that can have most impact on
project plans.
Risk templates or checklists are by-products of the risk identification
process. Using past projects, project managers can assemble lists of common
risks that can be applied to future projects. These lists or templates can
provide the basis for risk identification at the start of a project: however, as
each project brings its own unique set of objectives and constraints, lists and
templates should only be used as a starting point as they only represent a
portion of the risks.
For many projects even using vigorous risk you may still miss many risks
during original risk identification process. It often happens for research and
development project when you don’t have enough historical project information.
These “known risks” or those you identified before project starts are “tip of
the iceberg”. Many risks can be identified only after project starts as part of
project control. Therefore is it important to repeat risk identification process
on different phases of the project.